Que Ball Sun Looking More Like the Dalton Minimum

Anthony Watts has an update on the progress of Solar Cycle 24 HERE:

sdo-02-11-2016-4500

According to the data Cycle 24 the lowest in 200 years which harkens back to the time of the Dalton Minimum and Solar Cycle 5

solar-cycle24-comparisonAnthony writes:

As you can see from the plots in Figure 1, the current level of activity of solar cycle 24 seems close to that of solar cycle number 5, which occurred beginning in May 1798 and ending in December 1810 (thus falling within the Dalton Minimum). The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve-month period) observed during the solar cycle was 49.2, in February 1805 (the second lowest of any cycle to date, as a result of being part of the Dalton Minimum), and the minimum was zero.(ref: Wikipedia)

The Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. During that period, there was only a  temperature variation of about 1 °C. However, was the lower number of sunspots the cause of the lower-than-average temperatures during this period, or was it related to some other phenomenon not well understood. Scientists have  suggested that a rise in volcanism was responsible for the cooling trend.

The Year Without a Summer in 1816 occurred during the Dalton Minimum. The prime reason for cooler temperatures that summer was the explosive eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia according to many scientists. Mount Tambora  was one of two largest eruptions in the past 2000 years.

The question in my mind is how to verify that volcanism increases during solar minimums? If you look at the chart below, it appears that major volcanos erupted during the cold periods. But, were those eruptions triggered by declining sun spots or some other phenomenon.

According  to the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program database of eruptions, a count of all the eruptions that started in each year, from 1945 to 2015. it shows about 35 new eruptions per year, with a lot of variation from about 25 to 50 per year. The trend over the full period is basically flat, and while there was a slight increase on average from about 1997 to 2008. There were 26 eruptions in 2015 and 37 in 2014. There is no noticeable increase during the solar cycle 24 decline. Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism database has a lot to explore, more in a future post.

Your thoughts?

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Heat From Deep Ocean Fault Punches Hole in Arctic Ice Sheet

This a report from the Climate Change Dispatch that I found very interesting. Some reader many know the details as it is from a November 2015 post.

Powerful deep Arctic Ocean geological heat flow forces have just sent us a very obvious signal, but are climate scientists listening? The answer is no, however geologists hear it loud and clear!

Ice_melt_hole

Figure 1

As winter begins to settle in across the Arctic Ocean and sea ice extent rapidly expands, a very interesting high temperature and low salinity hole has just been punched in the sea ice at a very telling location: directly above the deep ocean Gakkel Ridge Rift / Fault System (Figures 1, 2, and 3 in the original post).

This world class plate tectonic pull-apart rift is a 1,000-mile-long fault system on the seafloor that has in recent past pulsed massive amounts of heat into the overlying ocean and thereby melting large portions of the ice that floats above the heated ocean column.

So what if anything is to be learned from the recent October 12 geologically induced deep-ocean floor heat pulse that punched a small hole in the Arctic sea ice? Many things, most of which have surprisingly large implications concerning the entire climate change discussion.

Here is how it works:

Climate scientists who favor the theory of man-made global warming have maintained for many years that the accelerated melting rate of the Arctic sea ice during the 1999-2007 time period was entirely due to man-made CO2 emissions which acted to rapidly warm the atmosphere. This unusual Arctic melting was greater than the melting rate associated with Earth’s ongoing and very normal 11,500-year-long post-glacial period melt rate.

Many climate scientists have begrudgingly stuck to this human-induced atmospheric warming story even though diverse and compelling amounts of data have now cast serious doubt on this hypothesis. It is clear to most scientists that non-atmospheric natural forces play the dominate role in driving sea ice extent and thickness such as well known variations in Earth’s astronomical orbit patterns, long-term cyclic changes in deep-ocean current patterns, and most importantly variations in geologically induced heat and chemically charged fluid flow from deep ocean faults and volcanoes (see previous CCD posts).

The small geologically induced deep-ocean heat and fluid flow event of October 12 eloquently demonstrate that geological forces are still active and have the power to alter Arctic climate and climate-related events, melt sea ice.

Keep in mind this latest October 12 event is not associated with obvious earthquake swarms and proven volcanic eruptions as was the case during the 1999 – 2007 event. This earlier event was powerful but not obvious to those who did not understand its true nature. Even though it was associated with an extensive low-intensity earthquake swarm, a huge methane release, and a significant series of volcanic eruptions along the Gakkel Ridge it was, and still is dismissed as insignificant by most climate scientists advocating the theory of man-made global warming.

However, many other scientists now realize that the 1999-2007 Gakkel Ridge heat and chemically charged fluid flow event was the root cause of accelerated the Arctic sea ice melting rate. An event that fits well with the Plate Climatology Theory, geological forces strongly influence climate.

The question is what role did Plate Climatology play in Grand Minimums, what could it play in the Next Grand Minimum?

Review: The West Without Water (Edited)

I was in Mendocino at the Gallery Bookshop when I spotted The West Without Water by B. Lynn Ingram and Francis Malamud-Roam on a shelf reserved for environmental books, one of the larger categories in this excellent book shop in liberal land on the coast. According to the book flap information on Amazon:

The West Without Water documents the tumultuous climate of the American west over twenty millennia, with tales of past droughts and deluges and predictions about the impacts of future climate change on water resources. Looking at the region’s current water crisis from the perspective of its climate history, the authors ask the central question of what is “normal” climate for the West, and whether the relatively benign climate of the past century will continue into the future.

The West without Water merges climate and paleoclimate research from a wide variety of sources as it introduces readers to key discoveries in cracking the secrets of the region’s climatic past. It demonstrates that extended droughts and catastrophic floods have plagued the West with regularity over the past two millennia and recounts the most disastrous flood in the history of California and the West, which occurred in 1861–62. The authors show that, while the West may have temporarily buffered itself from such harsh climatic swings by creating artificial environments and human landscapes, our modern civilization may be ill-prepared for the future climate changes that are predicted to beset the region. They warn that it is time to face the realities of the past and prepare for a future in which fresh water may be less reliable.

This is a very interesting book that provided some climate history that I was unfamiliar, with especially the 1861-62 flood in the Central Valley. I thought is was just in Sacramento, but it was the whole valley,  filled like a bathtub 10 feet deep. Records spanning the last 2000 years indicate these huge floods happened once or twice per century. We may be close to a major flood event in the near future, according to the cyclical record.  These flood events were more prevalent during cold periods, like the Little Ice Age. And, we are on the cusp of the next grand minimum, an extended cooling period according to leading solar scientists. 

Continue reading

CERN’s Jasper Kirkby On The Newest Unpublished Results Of CLOUD: “The Results Are Very Interesting”

P Gosselin at the No Tricks Zone writes:

The Latest On The CLOUD Experiment at CERN
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt

On May 10, 2013, at the online Austrian ORF, there was a rare interview with the CLOUD Experiment director of the European European Organization for Nuclear Research, Jasper Kirkby. Within the scope of the CLOUD project, it is being investigated to what extent solar activity has on cloud formation via the mechanism of cosmic radiation and the impact this could have on the Earth’s climate (see Chapter 6 of our book “Die kalte Sonne“). Here’s an excerpt of the worthwhile interview:

ORF: What is the relationship between solar activity and cosmic radiation?

Kirkby: Cosmic radiation consists of high energy, charged particles. When they reach our solar system, they are deflected away by the magnetic field of the sun. Foremost by the magnetic field of the solar plasma. When the sun is active, less cosmic radiation reaches the Earth. The relationship to the solar cycle: When there are many sunspots, the Earth receives 10 – 30% less cosmic radiation.

Is this relationship sure?

Yes, it is solidly confirmed. We also know that cosmic radiation ionizes every cubic centimeter of the Earth’s atmosphere. Unsure so far is whether or not this also could have a climatic impact. Clouds are extremely important for the Earth’s climate. If I could magically eliminate all clouds from the atmosphere, then 30 watts of additional heat energy would reach every square meter of the Earth.

To put this number into context: The warming of the atmosphere through the impacts of man is currently pegged at 1.5 watts per square meter. Small variations in cloud cover could have large impacts.

What do your experiments show?

At this point in time we cannot say if cosmic radiation impacts the climate. So far up to now we have investigated the production of condensation nuclei for cloud droplets – particularly those that are formed from gas, i.e. gas-to-particle-conversion”. They represent about half of the condensation nuclei in the atmosphere. The remaining nuclei come from soot and dust.

What gases are involved in this process?

We have looked at sulfuric acid and ammonia. The results of the first trials: Cosmic radiation enhances the formation of condensation nuclei from gases by a factor of 10. But that alone is too little to have a significant impact on cloud formation. According to our latest experiments, there has to be another gas or vapor involved that enhances this process. We suspect organic substances.

Which ones?

The results are currently being reviewed by a journal. Unfortunately I can’t tell you more. Only this much: The results are very interesting. Over the course of the year there are going to be some publications on the subject.

Let’s assume that you are able to show that cosmic radiation indeed does contribute a lot to cloud formation. What would that mean?

I think that the experiments are important in two ways. Firstly, they would show that there is a natural source to climate change. And the other point is that it would change our understanding of anthropogenic climate change. We know quite a bit about greenhouse gases. What we know little about are aerosols. These are particles that come from industry floating in the atmosphere. They surely have a cooling effect. However, we have no idea just how great this effect is. It may be small, but it may be very big. Maybe it is even big enough to offset the additional CO2 in the atmosphere.. We don’t know.

My emphasis added.   Since temperatures are not following the climate models based on CO2 emissions there has to be other factors that are influencing climate change.  I think that cosmic rays interaction with aerosols are prime candidates.  Cooling has been associated with increased volcanic activity, a prime source aerosols in the atmosphere. A weak sun enables the increase in cosmic rays, thus the combination could bring on the next grand minimum. Once the papers are published, we will know more. Stay Tuned.

Three volcanoes cut loose in Kamchatka

“Volcanic activity on the peninsula has dramatically intensified.”

Three giant volcanoes, Shiveluch, Kizimen and Plosky Talbachek, are erupting in different parts of the peninsula simultaneously, causing dozens of local earthquakes as vibrations accompanying the eruptions continue to increase.

Over the last days, Shiveluch, the biggest and most active, erupted gases several times while unceasing earth tremors send avalanches down its slopes.

Seismic activity at Stratovolcano Kizimen also by far exceeds normal. More than 80 local earthquakes have been registered near the volcano in the last 24 hours. At night a red glow could be seen in the sky above its crater. Kizimen ‘woke up’ in 2009 after the last big eruption in 1928-29 and since then its activity has only been growing.

Plosky Talbachek volcano has been erupting lava for weeks now. The flows are glowing in the nighttime, which means that more and more masses of lava continue to arrive, reported Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team.

Aviation authorities have issued an orange security level in the area.

See photos:
http://rt.com/news/kamchatka-three-volcanoes-eruption-485/

H/T to Ice Age Now for this link and a regular reader for an e-mail tip.   While a quiet sun can bring cooler climate to the planet, volcano eruptions can make the cold more intense, as the particulates block some of the sun’s energy from reaching the oceans.  We are in from a much colder winter.

There has been higher volcanic activity during cold periods on the planet. It was less clear what the connection is.  This paper adds to the discussion and the discovery of a real connection.

Watts Up With That?

When the ice melts, the Earth spews fire

GEOMAR researchers discover a link between climate and volcanic eruptions

It has long been known that volcanic activity can cause short-term variations in climate. Now, researchers at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (Germany), together with colleagues from Harvard University (Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA) have found evidence that the reverse process also occurs: Climate affects volcanic activity. Their study is now online in the international journal “Geology”.

In 1991, it was a disaster for the villages nearby the erupting Philippine volcano Pinatubo. But the effects were felt even as far away as Europe. The volcano threw up many tons of ash and other particles into the atmosphere causing less sunlight than usual to reach the Earth’s surface. For the first few years after the eruption, global temperatures dropped by half a degree. In general, volcanic eruptions can have a strong short-term…

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Third NZ volcano erupting – Massive growth rates

Russ Steele

Robert Felix has posted the report below on volcano activity in New Zealand at Ice Age Now. Why should we be paying attention?  The ice core demonstrate that cooling periods came on sharply and more and more scientist are beginning to credit volcanism for plunging the earth in to little ice ages.

“Is the super volcano Taupo awakening?” asks this headline on twawki.com.

The situation in NZ continues to alarm. A third volcano – Monowai, has erupted, emitting pumice that covers an area of ocean 50 km x 450km in size (10,000 sq. miles). It has one of the fastest growth rates for a volcano in recent history.

1800 years ago Taupo volcano in New Zealand had the largest volcanic eruption in the world for the last 5000 years. Taupo ejected over 30 cubic kilometers of material including a pyroclastic flow that moved at 600-900km/hr, traveling up mountains to a height of 1500m .

But even that massive eruption was dwarfed by the huge Taupo eruption just 26,500 years ago which plunged the earth into a volcanic winter & wiped out 60% of the population. From wikipedia;

The Oruanui eruption of the Taupo volcano was the world’s largest known eruption in the past 70,000 years, with a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 8. It generated approximately 430 km³ of pyroclastic fall deposits, 320 km³ ofpyroclastic density current (PDC) deposits and 420 km³ of primary intracaldera material, equivalent to 530 km³ of magma.

Modern Lake Taupo partly fills the caldera generated during this eruption.

This eruption was the largest volcanic eruption in the world in the last 70,000 years. When you consider the pyroclastic flows from this eruption were up to 100m deep (yes the height of a 30 story building), and extended up to 100km from the volcano then this is a volcanic area to keep a close eye upon. Especially as this volcano erupts every 2000 years and erupted around 1800 years ago.

The last 3 months has seen many small earthquakes around Taupo but there seems an increase in tectonic activity in recent years with a 6.5 quake just last year and another 5 quake last month. With volcanic eruptions Tongariro erupted unexpectedly this week with White Island erupting yesterday.

In 2006 Geologists warned Rotorua, Taupo and Whakatane are set to be wiped out in a massive overdue earthquake. An Alpine fault quake is a certainty where East Cape would rip away from New Zealand, destroying the plateau that Rotorua is based on and taking Taupo and Whakatane with it. It is only a matter of when.

The interval since the last event (in 1717) is longer than any interval between known earlier events.”

I found this additional information on Twawki.com interesting.

As Christchurch keeps getting hit with earthquakes & liquefaction is New Zealand waking up in accord with it’s cycles? There is also speculation that volcanic activity coincides with low sunspot activity – with solar cycle 24 flat-lining it will be interesting times ahead! 

This is an area that needs more study. Was there more vulcanism during low sunspots,  and what is the link?

Little Ice Age began with a bang

Russ Steele

I have alway had this nagging suspicion that when sun spots are lowest the volcanic activity is higher,  but have not found the data to confirm my suspicions.This paper reported on in Science News may prompt me to redouble my effort.

Frozen moss suggests climate cooling kicked off fast, possibly with help from volcanoes

The Little Ice Age, a centuries-long spell of cold summers in Europe and elsewhere, began suddenly late in the 13th century, a new study finds. A string of volcanic explosions may have set off this change in climate by belching particles that reflected sunlight and allowed Arctic sea ice to reach epic proportions, researchers report online January 31 inGeophysical Research Letters.

“We’ve been able to identify the beginning of the Little Ice Age, something that’s been very difficult to do in the past,” says Gifford Miller, a paleoclimatologist and geologist at the University of Colorado Boulder. “This cooling wasn’t gradual; it was an abrupt shift.”

It’s long been known that much of the globe became chillier during the Renaissance. By the 17th century, temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere had fallen by half a degree Celsius compared with medieval times. Ice skating on London’s frozen River Thames became popular.

To pin down when this climate change began, Miller’s team traveled to Baffin Island on the northern fringes of Canada. Small glaciers in this region tend to respond quickly to temperature changes. Carbon dating of moss entombed in Baffin’s ice revealed two sudden advances of the snow line that killed off the vegetation: a sudden cold spell between 1275 to 1300, followed by intensifying cold between 1430 and 1455.

Testing whether this chill extended beyond Canada took the researchers to the Langjökull glacier, the second largest ice cap in Iceland. Layered sediments from a nearby lake appeared progressively thicker in the 14th century — exactly what would be expected if the glacier expanded and ground away the landscape.

These chillier conditions began during an especially active time for volcanoes. “The second half of the 13th century had the most volcanism of any period of the past 1,500 years,” says Alan Robock, an atmospheric scientist at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, N.J.

Miller and his colleagues may not have noticed, is that both cooling periods occurred in sync with low sunspot activity. Those two periods of low sunspot activity are known respectively as the Wolf Minimum and the Sporer Minimum.

Volcano Climate Impact

Russ Steele

Ice Age Now has a interesting article on the impact of small volcano eruptions.

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An international research team has found that aerosols from relatively small volcanic eruptions can affect global temperatures.

Odin Satellite – Image credit: Swedish Space Corp

Until now it was thought that a massively energetic eruption was needed to inject aerosols all the way through the troposphere and into the stratosphere, says Adam Bourassa, from the U of S Institute of Space and Atmospheric Studies.

But when the team looked at the June 2011 eruption of the Nabro volcano in Eritrea in northeast Africa, they found that wind had carried the volcanic gas and aerosol – minute droplets of sulfuric acid – into the path of the annual Asian summer monsoon.

The monsoon lofted volcanic gas and lighter liquid droplets into the stratosphere where they were detected by the Swedish research satellite Odin.

“Once (an aerosol) reaches the stratosphere, it can persist for years, and with that kind of a sustained lifetime, it can really have a lasting effect,” says Bourassa, who led the research.  “That effect is the scattering of incoming sunlight and the potential to cool the Earth’s surface.”

For example, the massive eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 temporarily dropped temperatures by half a degree Celsius world-wide.

The research appears in the July 6 issue of the journal Science.

http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1112651244/smaller-volcanoes-could-cool-climate-accor ding-to-satellite-research/

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Note all eruptions on this graphic during our coldest periods.