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THE BLOB Has Dissipated

This post was intended as an update to the California Drought Report #47 on my  Sierra Foothills Commentary Blog. The reported blob and it’s consequences are no longer present. My apology for cluttering up The Next Grand Minimum.

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale


Animation 1 – Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Maps from the CMC Environment Canada (September 17, 2016 and October 27, 2016)

The Blob was the name given to the area of elevated sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern extratropical North Pacific. It formed in 2013, coupling with a ridge of high pressure that impacted weather patterns across North America into 2015.  The Blob was the primary contributor to the reported record high global sea surface temperature anomalies in 2014, and contributed to the record highs in 2015 along with the 2015 portion of the 2014/15/16 El Niño. (See General Discussions 2 and 3 of my free ebook On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1.  Also see the series of posts about The Blob for additional general information.)

After a noticeable drop in the sea surface temperature anomalies for that region…

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Study: fewer Caribbean hurricanes during Maunder Minimum of solar activity

I posted this before I read this comment:

Willis Eschenbach 

Riiiight … it is a spliced record, and the anomalous period is right before the splice. Not only that but the puff piece above is pre-publication, so they get to put their claims out there with no chance of anyone even reading their study, much less falsifying it, until after their version has gone round the world. No data, no code, no methods section, no nothing.

Sorry, but to me that’s scientific malfeasance. I’ll remember the names of the authors so I can avoid them in future.


When reading the study keep Willis’s critique in mind


Watts Up With That?

“We didn’t go looking for the Maunder Minimum, it just popped out of the data.”

Hurricane Katrina, Aug 28, 2005 Hurricane Katrina, Aug 28, 2005


Shipwrecks, tree rings reveal Caribbean hurricanes in buccaneer era

Records of Spanish shipwrecks combined with tree-ring records show the period 1645 to 1715 had the fewest Caribbean hurricanes since 1500, according to new University of Arizona-led research. The study is the first to use shipwrecks as a proxy for hurricane activity.

The researchers found a 75 percent reduction in the number of Caribbean hurricanes from 1645-1715, a time with little sunspot activity and cool temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.

“We’re the first to use shipwrecks to study hurricanes in the past,” said lead author Valerie Trouet, an associate professor in the UA Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research. “By combining shipwreck data and tree-ring data, we are extending the Caribbean hurricane record back in time and that…

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Volcanos and Climate Change

Cross posted from Sierra Foothills Commentary.

Sierra Foothill Commentary

It is not clear why, but when the earth cools and sunspots are at their minimum, volcanic activity on earth seems to increase, especially super volcanos that leave a significant eruption signature. See graphic below:

Volcanic activity
The most dangerous super volcano in the US is a volcanic plume that has been sliding northeast, across Idaho for millions of years and last erupting about 640,000 years ago in north-western Wyoming. The Yellowstone Caldera was created by a massive volcanic eruption approximately 640,000 years ago. Subsequent lava flows filled in much of the caldera.

UK Express has a volcano warning:

Instances of volcanic eruptions are their highest for 300 years and scientists fear a major one that could kill millions and devastate the planet is a real possibility.

Experts at the European Science Foundation said volcanoes – especially super-volcanoes like the one at Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, which has a caldera measuring 34…

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Climate and Human Civilization over the last 18,000 years

I recommend readers examine this post at WUWT as it puts multiple grand minimums in perspective, in that they follow long warm periods which promoted human growth and expansion. It is interesting to note that the cold periods were accompanied by long-term droughts. Droughts that disrupted civilizations and in many cases promote collapse. Highly recommend reading.

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Andy May

This is an updated timeline of climatic events and human history for the last 18,000 years. The original timeline was posted in 2013. The updated full size (Ansi E size or 34×44 inches) Adobe Reader version 8 PDF can be downloaded here or by clicking on Figure 1. It prints pretty well on 11×17 inch paper and very well on 17×22 inch paper or larger. To see the timeline in full resolution or to print it, you must download it. It is not copyrighted, but please acknowledge the author if you use it.


Figure 1 -click for a much larger, printable poster (PDF)

References to the images and data are given in this essay as hyperlinks. I’ve done my best to verify the accuracy of the content by checking multiple sources. When references had different dates for the same event, I chose the most commonly…

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A Dalton-like Amplitude for Solar Cycle 25

Some insight into potential solar activity during the next solar cycle. A Dalton Minimum will most likely not be as severe as a Maunder. Only time will solve the issue.  The comment discussion is most interesting, highly recommended reading.

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by David Archibald

The most accurate method for predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle is to use the strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at solar minimum. But with solar minimum likely to be three years away, who can wait that long?

The strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at solar minimum is a very accurate indicator of the maximum amplitude of the following solar cycle, as per this graph from Dr David Hathaway of NASA:


Up until late 2014, solar polar magnetic field strength was still quite weak as shown in this graph of the history of that parameter by solar cycle from the last four solar minima:


Over the last year the solar polar magnetic fields of Solar Cycle 24 have strengthened to almost the level of Solar Cycle 23 at the same stage. But for the previous two cycles, they also…

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