Solar minimums may be final piece of puzzle in fall of Western Civilisation

Sam Khoury writing in the Nation

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By the 1st century BC, Rome was the most advanced and powerful civilisation on Earth and Romans’ material wealth was skyrocketing. Men and women are increasingly less interested in marriage and no-fault divorce is enacted. Birth rates start to decline below the replacement rate. The citizen soldiers are eventually replaced with professional soldiers who expect compensation and are loyal to the military itself, not the state. As the empire expands in a series of wars of choice it is becomes increasingly multicultural thanks to new citizens from conquered territories. Their loyalty is in question but Rome depends on them as mercenaries to defend the declining state. The government and the military industrial complex replace the private sector as the sole entity responsible for everyone’s well-being. There is moral decay and brutality as Julius Caesar brags about killing one million Gauls. This period could be compared our own world since 1970. By the 400s Rome is being pillaged by Visigoths and Vandals, who ensure it never makes it to the 500s.

However there was something else occurring in the 400s that wasn’t happening in the preceding centuries. Although corruption and immorality were rife, the scientific and historical record shows the climate cooled but, more destructively, it became erratic. Long dry conditions were interrupted by intense deluges. Unseasonal spells of cold weather became the norm. Although solar activity records only date back to the 1600s, these conditions were almost certainly the result of a combination of low solar activity and high volcanic activity – much like the post-medieval warm period that saw solar minimums like the so-called Maunder and Dalton and large volcanic eruptions like the Tambora which, combined with the Dalton, created freezing summers. The result during the 400s was rising food prices, which along with the other factors created deep social dissatisfaction as the economy faltered.

There are proposals on the table to turn the Afghani war over to mercenaries and bring out troops home to a land were middle-class citizens are questioning the role of government and wealth disparity created by robotic and AI technology is growing.  We are becoming more like the Roman Empire, dropping birth rates, fewer marriages, and more debauchery.  Moral decay and fear of the government rampant.  But a significant change in the climate, a highly erratic climate of droughts and floods destroyed the food supply and that was the final blow to the Roman Empire.  Is this or fate?

Enter the monkey in the wrench. After 200 years of healthy solar maximums, solar activity has been plummeting since 2010 and the first solar minimum will hit bottom around 2021. By the 2030s solar physicists now reckon that a grand solar minimum will consume most of the rest of the century. Volcanic activity has also been on the increase and more is expected as eruptions occur most often during solar cycle peaks or at solar minimums. In previous articles published in this newspaper I chronicled increasingly intense and erratic weather patterns that have coincided with the lower solar activity since 2010. The latest include a cold front that descended on the US Midwest in late June dropping temperatures to near freezing, and recent snowfall 200 kilometres south of Moscow in Tarttarastran. Wheat futures immediately rose 6 per cent. At this time the world takes cheap foodstuffs for granted. A change of this reality in the future could shake the global world order to its foundations.

Full Article in HERE.

 

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Grand Minimum Super Earthquakes

UpheavalUpheaval!: Why Catastrophic Earthquakes Will Soon Strike the United States

by Mr. John L. Casey, Dr. Dong Choi, Dr.Fumio Tsunoda and Dr. Ole HumlumPublished January 2017.

It is hard to write a book about the future, as it can be hard to address all the influencing factors. In this case, John Casey and his fellow authors are basing the future on the past. They examine the history of earth quakes during solar minimums. Previous solar minimums have been a challenge for humans, with a colder climate, shorter growing seasons, super storms, and an increase in the number of the main earth quakes which produce more solar minimum unanticipated misery according to the authors.

The authors provide a compelling amount of data relating the past, describing the present, and forecasting the future. The charts are clear and readable, even on the Kindle once selected for review. There is enough color to increase understanding of the information, without confusing the reader.

I found the book interesting and had a hard time putting it down in the evening and turning in for the night. I have been following the progress of grand minimums for years on this blog and puzzled over the increase of volcanic activity during grand minimums but never considered an increase in powerful earth quakes. The authors make a strong case for grand minimums being a causal factor in triggering these strong earth quakes. Recommend readers review the evidence and draw their conclusions.

What the actual process that causes the grand minimum earth quakes is not clear, does a cooler planet shrink, causing plates to shift and slip? Does the decrease in magnetosphere create some torque on the rotation of the molten core, in turn creating stress on the crustal shell? Are historical cycles good indicators of future events. What would the Reverend Bayes say after a statistical analysis?

According to the authors, we should be preparing for some strong earth quakes in California, Oregon, Washington and Mississippi River Valley as we pass over the cusp to the next grand minimum. This book may be enough evidence to convince you the preppers have some credibility. Those citizens that prepare will have a greater chance of survival, those that do not will perish in the chaos. Where do you stand?

H/T to Anthony  Mengotto for alerting me to this book.

Summer of 1816 in New Hampshire: A Tale of Two Freezes

Ric Werme writing at Watt Up With That has an interesting weather story that takes place during the Dalton Minimum. The article is quite long and he provides this Executive Summary:

  • The proximate cause of the cold weather in 1816 is the explosion of Mt Tambora in April 1815. This may have been the largest volcanic explosion in recorded human history and lofted a lot of sulfuric acid aerosols into the stratosphere. However, 1816 is just one of several cold years blamed on volcanoes, solar activity, and other causes.
  • There were warm days, even a few hot days. There were even some warm months mixed in with the cold ones, so the result was that the annual average temperature wasn’t very far from average. In this and other cases, small deviations can add up to a major impact on the length of the growing season, number of growing degree days, etc.
  • I think the weather pattern was most affected by high latitude cooling and the polar jet stream (the storm track) shifting southward. South of the storm track there was less cooling, but they were still affected by weather systems from the north. There are signs that the jet stream had a “meridional” flow which allows polar air to surge south and tropical air to surge north.The effect of volcanic aerosols is poorly documented, likely because its poorly understood. Pretty much all of the sources talk about the amount of aerosol and the effect on global temperatures. However, I think the effects vary with latitude and that had a major effect on temperatures at different latitudes and the intensity of various weather events.
  • What set 1816 apart from other years were two freeze events. If frosts in June and August hadn’t happened, the harvest would have been very different, and few people would write about the weather of 1816. There was plenty of other cold weather in 1816, so this essay is way too long and needs this executive summary
  • A claim that snow or frosts occurred in every month of the year does not hold for parts of New Hampshire in July. There may have been such events in western Connecticut or Massachusetts, or even Virginia, but some descriptions may be exaggerated. It doesn’t affect the outcome of the year, as most everything that made it through July was killed in August.
  • 1816 set into motion changes in New Hampshire that probably would have happened later, but traces of them still exist today.

The full article is HERE.

I found the comments on the article equally interesting.  My grandmother Thomas was an avid gardener and had a kitchen garden all of her adult life. She kept a record of the last spring frost and the first fall frost in Nevada County CA and adjusted her planting and harvesting based on the record of the past.   An 1812 summer with late and early frosts would have thrown her for a loop.

 

Continued Cold Puts Food Supply at Risk

One of the consequences of a Grand Minimum coupled with a Little Ice Age is the long term impact on food production. As the cool settles in and the ground freezes food-producing land becomes scarcer, food-growing seasons become shorter, and the world becomes a much more arid and less hospitable place. Food shortages and social unrest has followed previous cold periods and will again.

As I have written before climate change in America’s food basket will be one of the early indicators that the next grand minimum has arrived and the consequences are emanate.

The continental U.S. has been cooling over the last 16 years, at a rate of minus 3.8°F per century rate.

corn belt cooling

The NOAA/NCDC climate record reveals, the breadbasket areas of American have been cooling for a longer period – 17 years. The images below reflect the empirical evidence for the primary U.S. corn growing areas., which is cooling at a minus 4.0°F/century rate.

 

 

Corn belt Map

If this cooling trend were to continue, it would spell disaster for the world’s hungry. Let’s hope ‘the pause’ in global warming does not last much longer as it unfortunately seems to project a cooling regime over the U.S.

 

Here is the February forecast:

cfs_anom_t2m_conus_2014012400_m2

Dr. Baliunas on Little Ice Age Weather Cooking

Dr. Sallie Baliunas discusses the Little Ice Age and the history of people’s superstitious reactions to extreme weather.

Dr Baliunas, Staff Astrophysicist at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, lays out a great read of propaganda and the CAGW crowd. Only seven minutes long, this eye-opening video is well-worth watching.

The video can be viewed HERE:

The Little Ice Age lasted about 500 years, but the most severe period during the Little Ice Age occurred in Europe between 1550 and 1700, says Dr Baliunas. That was also probably the harshest period of weather in the last 1,000 years, if not longer.

The severe conditions in climate brought about crop failure, starvation, disease, death and social unrest.

Because people “knew” that with Satan’s help one could “cook the weather,” the extreme weather and harsh conditions during that period contributed to mass executions and Witch Trials.

Witch trials were completely legal and were administered by highly educated upper level social strata.

Skeptics were considered sorcerers or witches and were tortured until they confessed. Then they were executed.

It is now estimated that some 50,000 executions took place across Europe.

H/T to Ice Age Now.

Did you note the parallels with how the warmers want to treat current skeptics like witches, and the notion that any extreme weather is unusual and has to have a human related cause.  What was the cause during the Little Ice Age? Liberals?

Global Crisis: War, Climate Change & Catastrophe in the 17th Century

Historian Geoffrey Parker has a new book out that examines the impact of the Little Ice Age on social, economic and political structures around the globe.

hunters-in-the-snow-1565

Amazon Abstract:

Revolutions, droughts, famines, invasions, wars, regicides – the calamities of the mid-seventeenth century were not only unprecedented, they were agonisingly widespread.  A global crisis extended from England to Japan, and from the Russian Empire to sub-Saharan Africa. North and South America, too, suffered turbulence. The distinguished historian Geoffrey Parker examines first-hand accounts of men and women throughout the world describing what they saw and suffered during a sequence of political, economic and social crises that stretched from 1618 to the 1680s. Parker also deploys scientific evidence concerning climate conditions of the period, and his use of ‘natural’ as well as ‘human’ archives transforms our understanding of the World Crisis. Changes in the prevailing weather patterns during the 1640s and 1650s – longer and harsher winters, and cooler and wetter summers – disrupted growing seasons, causing dearth, malnutrition, and disease, along with more deaths and fewer births. Some contemporaries estimated that one-third of the world died, and much of the surviving historical evidence supports their pessimism.

I do not think that our current global leaders are preparing to deal with extended cooling and reduced agriculture production, they are focused on reducing AGW warming,  spending billions to control a natural cycle,  when the could be preparing for the Next Grand Minimum.  Your thoughts?

How Does the Next Ice Age Start – One Snow Flake at a Time

ICE AGE NOW starts with this introduction:

“Most people do NOT realize how short the Canadian growing season is and that the development of new early ripening wheat was a major discovery for Canadian agriculture, says reader Greg. “The snow is slowly melting in the Canadian Prairie, near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. and planting is nearly a month behind already. Ever shortening seasons will wipe out Canadian wheat farming.

“Here is an eye opening article from deep in the wheat belt:”

How does an ice age start? With one snowflake

By Brian Zinchuk

April 17, 2013 – (Excerpts)

Moods were glum throughout Western Canada that spring. April showers were supposed to bring May flowers. Instead, all the precipitation would come as the “white stuff.” Regina kept reporting another centimetre every few days. Roofs started collapsing. Brendenbury lost the roof of its rink. Still, these things can happen any given year.

But by the May long weekend, people really began to worry. There was still snow on the ground. No farmer could plant a crop. Half-million dollar tractor-and-air seeder combinations sat idle…. While that was hard on the pocketbooks, it was worse for the stomach.

By July, three-year-old bales that were used for wind protection were fetching $200 a piece, if you could find them. By September, the beef herd had been culled by 75 per cent. There was no food, anywhere, to feed the cattle. After a brief time when stores couldn’t give away all the recently slaughtered beef, and pork, North America suddenly found itself on a vegan diet, deprived of most of its milk, too. After all, you couldn’t drink milk if you couldn’t feed the cows.

World grain prices quadrupled over four months with the realization that there would be no grain production from the Canadian West, and substantially less from the American plains.

Natural gas prices also shot up, well beyond their 2007 peaks. With people running their furnaces year round, stockpiles dried up and, by fall, drilling resumed in earnest.

“Climate change,” the people were told. “This is what happens when we drive gas-guzzling SUVs and burn coal. The world is getting warmer.”

But it wasn’t…

You can read the rest of Brian’s scary ice age scenario HERE.

 

U.S. Breadbasket At Risk From Global Cooling NOAA Indicates – Crop Failures, World Hunger A Result?

While left-leaning U.S. politicians, bureaucrats and the partisan mainstream press continue to push the silly catastrophic AGW hysteria from human CO2 emissions, a significant cooling trend (per NOAA) across a critically important global breadbasket continues – if the latest 15-year global cooling trend persists, crop yields will suffer immensely

Winter Wheat Belt Wheat Belt Soy Bean Belt Corn Belt

As has been well documented, global warming has gone AWOL and in some regions of the world, global cooling trends have materialized, which scientists across the world are starting to express concern with.

In the key crop regions of the U.S., there has been an extended cooling trend that persists despite the immense human CO2 emissions released over the last two decades. The above four NOAA charts depict those cooling trends across the a wide swath of American agricultural production. These charts represent the main American corn, soybean, spring and winter wheat growing areas.

What the huge U.S. breadbasket needs at this point is a few years of some good old fashioned global warming that will reverse the potential devastation a mass cooling would deliver to crop yields.

Unfortunately, though, it appears nature is not delivering what the American farmers and ranchers need this spring.

VIA:  http://www.c3headlines.com/2013/04/us-breadbasket-at-risk-from-global-cooling-noaa-indicates-crop-failures-world-hunger-a-result.html

Archaeologists Find Clues to Viking Mystery

For years, researchers have puzzled over why Viking descendents abandoned Greenland in the late 15th century. But archaeologists now believe that economic and identity issues, rather than starvation and disease, drove them back to their ancestral homes.

More HERE.  The authors describe life on Greenland during the LIA. It was a brutal existence for those on the island, isolated from their homeland.

Climate Change and the Light Switch – A Geologist View

Russ Steele

whole storyI just finished reading The Whole Story of Climate:  What Science Reveals about the Nature of Endless Change  by E. Kirsten Peters on my Kindle Fire.  After learning about the book on a climate change blog, I down loaded it from Amazon and started reading it immediately and just could not put it down.  The author introduces biographical portraits of lead scientist who made major climate indicator discoveries, and then examines the circumstances of their discoveries.  A  detective story or sorts.

Dr. Peters introduces the  important contributions that geologist have made to our understanding of climate change in very kitchen table conversational style. Even the scientifically challenged readers will find this an enjoyable read. What emerges is a much more complex and nuanced picture of climate change issues than are usually presented in the main stream presses thirty second sound bites.

“If we view climate changes as our enemy we will always be defeated, for climate will always change. Natural climate change is frequent, often extreme, and sometimes rapid. Industrial CO2 is a real problem just as you have heard, but it’s only a fragment of the whole story of climate. In other words, I’m not a global warming denier – I want to add to the discussion of climate change from the point of view of geology and natural change. What may matter most is not our carbon policies, but whether we invest in adaptive strategies that can serve us well when change inevitably arrives on our doorstep.”

Dr. Peters points out that geological history, including the ice cores, has shown that climate change can be surprisingly rapid, coming in five, ten, or fifteen years.  Climate change is more like flipping a light switch, going from warm to cold in a decade. Or, from cold to warm in a decade. We live in a chaotic world and the climate can shift rapidly, regardless of human actions.

” . . . natural history reveals that rapid shifts from hotter to cooler climes can occur over mere decades, and, if not for recent carbon pollution, an ice age might be just around the corner.”

Dr Peters explains her views in this short video: http://youtu.be/5lwP77LZbQA  Including some ideas on how to mitigate CO2 emission by snuffing out the coal field fires that are emitting tons of CO2 every day around the globe.

I agree with her views that we should be preparing for a climate shift, regardless of the direction. However, if we accept her light switch analogy while residing in a warm world, then we have to assume that the next flip of the switch will bring on a much colder world.  A much colder world that can emerge in a just a decade. A climate change that we could experience in a life time.  It has happened in the past and will happen again, according to Dr. Peters.  She presents some historical examples.

The Whole Story of Climate is essential reading if your want to understand one of our most important contemporary debates — global climate change.  Policy makers are spending billions to mitigate global warming, when in fact we may be on the cusp of global cooling, if not the next ice age.  It is important that more citizens understand the larger picture, and prepare accordingly.

More HERE.