Scientists Predict New Solar Cycle About to Begin

(MSN) The latest 11-year cycle of the sun is almost over and scientists have just released predictions for the next one.

Based on the number of sunspots that formed, scientists considered the last solar cycle, No. 24, “weak.” They predict that the upcoming cycle, No. 25, will be a little more intense but still in the weak category.

This consensus forecast was made public at the annual Space Weather Workshop last week, hosted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

Source

What do you think?  Do you agree with NOAA?  

18 thoughts on “Scientists Predict New Solar Cycle About to Begin

  1. Mark Hotz December 3, 2019 / 12:51 pm

    If we are now entering what many online are referring to as a Grand Solar Minimum, wouldn’t that mean that the pending new solar cycle is expected to be be less intense than the one that just ended? Perhaps I’m misinterpreting something?

    • trenwithblog December 8, 2019 / 8:54 pm

      Scientists have no way of knowing with any certainty where the sun is heading. Climate change deniers who propose a coming cooling period pretend there is such certainty.

      • Mark Hotz December 10, 2019 / 7:42 am

        Just so we’re all on the same page…are these the same climate deniers who claim that the world’s climate was steady, calm and relatively mild for the past 12,000 years….right up until the last 25 years?

      • trenwithblog December 10, 2019 / 2:23 pm

        I’ve encountered neither a climate scientist nor an anthropogenic-climate-change-denying pseudo-scientist who believes that the climate of the past 8000 years has been “steady”, merely steady relative to the wild swings in climate that the earth has experienced in the past. Seems like you’re setting yourself up to make a straw man argument.

        But it has most certainly been mild relative to the last glacial period, and also relative to the climate of 55 million years ago. And I have no idea how to interpret “calm climate”, given that “calm” is a descriptor for wind speed.

        (Actually I have met deniers who believe that the climate has never changed – the ones who believe the earth is 6000 years old. How does it feel having them on your side of the fence?)

      • canuck57 December 10, 2019 / 3:20 pm

        Nope…not trying to make any type of argument…but you answered my question. I was just trying to clarify what you meant by “climate change denier”. However, many of the theories I have read proclaimed by the anthropogenic climate change advocates have pretty well eliminated the Roman and Medieval warm periods as well as the Maunder Minimum temperature reconstruction to help drive home their point that any sudden warming has only happened in the 20th century.

      • trenwithblog December 10, 2019 / 7:23 pm

        So canuck57 and Mark Hotz are sock puppet accounts.

        And notice how I keep saying SCIENTISTS.
        No Climate SCIENTIST denies variability during the holocene.

      • Russ Steele December 10, 2019 / 10:52 pm

        I am not sure where you are going with this argument but suggest we all stick to the science, for example, the ice Greenland Ice cores, that indicate the earth global temperature is cooling and the current warming is only a minor deviation. The graphic is here: https://wordpress.com/post/sierrafoothillcommentary.com/4383

      • trenwithblog December 11, 2019 / 2:50 am

        RS
        Not sure what I am supposed to see when I click on your link. All I see is “Title” and then a blank screen. But I sure hope that your ‘graphic’ is backed up with a reliable and downloadable data source. And it had better not be from central Greenland where it is already known that ice mass is growing due to increased precipitation (not due to colder temperatures). It had better show averages over the entire area of Greenland, or at least averages taken from uniformly distributed samples from all of Greenland.

        And you don’t believe that pointing out people who post under multiple accounts in order to create the illusion of a greater following is worthwhile?

  2. alessandrodecet December 3, 2019 / 2:45 pm

    In reality the data show that the solar cycle 25 will become active in 2022.
    The minimum started this year will end around that time.

    • canuck57 December 3, 2019 / 3:52 pm

      Thanks for the response…appreciated. I just thought that solar cycles were all 11 years; hence, if it started this year then it will end in 2030. I admit though that I’m not that well read on the subject.

      • Pieter van Leeuwen (@pedro_deleon54) December 5, 2019 / 7:40 pm

        My understanding is different from you both. Its neither the low within a solar cycle of eleven years, nor necessarily confined to an 11 year cycle. Here’s wiki on the “GRAND” solar minima

        “Grand solar minima occur when several solar cycles exhibit lesser than average activity for decades or centuries.”

  3. canuck57 December 6, 2019 / 9:40 am

    Thanks for the responses…this helps for sure. As mentioned I simply thought that solar cycles were all 11 years…like clockwork. But your explanations here make much more sense. Rather than the calendar it’s the sun itself that dictates when cycles begin and end.

    So with the wiki explanation then, I wonder when the grand solar minimum will become “official”?

    • Russ Steele December 7, 2019 / 4:54 pm

      Good question: One of the issues will be the naming of the event. Multiple organizations have proposed a name. The latest is the Zharkova Minimum

      • Mark Hotz December 7, 2019 / 9:07 pm

        After reading so much about Valentina Zharkova and her work trying to explain to the world how the sun affects our climate, I think naming the new minimum after her would be awesome.

      • Russ Steele December 9, 2019 / 9:44 pm

        Mark, I agree.

    • Russ Steele December 7, 2019 / 5:51 pm

      The link is a very comprehensive site, with some excellent graphics and explanations. Worth a good look.

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