Henrik Svensmark: FORCE MAJEURE The Sun’s Role in Climate Change

I am still studying this paper but wanted to share and get your feedback

Executive Summary

Over the last twenty years there has been good progress in understanding the solar influ- ence on climate. In particular, many scientific studies have shown that changes in solar activ- ity have impacted climate over the whole Holocene period (approximately the last 10,000 years). A well-known example is the existence of high solar activity during the Medieval Warm Period, around the year 1000 AD, and the subsequent low levels of solar activity during the cold period, now called The Little Ice Age (1300–1850 AD). An important scientific task has been to quantify the solar impact on climate, and it has been found that over the eleven- year solar cycle the energy that enters the Earth’s system is of the order of 1.0–1.5 W/m2. This is nearly an order of magnitude larger than what would be expected from solar irradiance alone, and suggests that solar activity is getting amplified by some atmospheric process.

Three main theories have been put forward to explain the solar–climate link, which are:
• solarultravioletchanges
• theatmospheric-electric-fieldeffectoncloudcover
• cloudchangesproducedbysolar-modulatedgalacticcosmicrays(energeticparticles originating from inter stellar space and ending in our atmosphere).

Significant efforts has gone into understanding possible mechanisms, and at the moment cosmic ray modulation of Earth’s cloud cover seems rather promising in explaining the size of solar impact. This theory suggests that solar activity has had a significant impact on climate during the Holocene period. This understanding is in contrast to the official consensus from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, where it is estimated that the change in solar radiative forcing between 1750 and 2011 was around 0.05 W/m2, a value which is en- tirely negligible relative to the effect of greenhouse gases, estimated at around 2.3 W/m2. However, the existence of an atmospheric solar-amplification mechanism would have im- plications for the estimated climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide, suggesting that it is much lower than currently thought.

In summary, the impact of solar activity on climate is much larger than the official consen- sus suggests. This is therefore an important scientific question that needs to be addressed by the scientific community.

Full paper at the GWPF website HERE.

 

6 thoughts on “Henrik Svensmark: FORCE MAJEURE The Sun’s Role in Climate Change

  1. oldbrew March 19, 2019 / 12:34 pm

    Reblogged this on Tallbloke's Talkshop and commented:
    The author writes in his 40-page document: ‘This report is not meant to be an exhaustive representation of all the published papers related to a solar influence on Earth’s climate, but aims to give a clear presentation of the current knowledge on the link between solar activity and climate.’

    Where does cosmic ray variation fit into the ‘big picture’ of solar influences on the Earth?

  2. Pablo March 19, 2019 / 12:57 pm

    Suspect cosmic ray influence as minor and short term.
    Long term major/catastrophic as per Dr. Peter Langdon Ward.

    See:https://whyclimatechanges.com

  3. Macha March 22, 2019 / 4:59 pm

    Pity the calculation in the appendix smeared solar input over surface to get 240W/m2…. Flat earth math. The rest is great.

  4. Bud Hammons March 29, 2019 / 11:03 am

    Zharkova et al offer a model to explain the variability in Solar output. It seems credible and worthy of serious consideration. I think there is subsequent work by this same team.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689

    Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale

    V. V. Zharkova, S. J. Shepherd, E. Popova & S. I. Zharkov

    • Russ Steele March 29, 2019 / 3:30 pm

      Thanks for the link. I think this is an important science that is being ignored.

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