Solar Cycle 25 Stronger than Cycle 24?

Previously, scientists suggested that sunspot cycle 25 could be weaker than the current cycle, potentially meaning a period of global cooling could ensue. However, this has largely been ruled out, with a team of scientists in India recently predicting that the next solar cycle could be even stronger than the current one.

Abstract

The Sun’s activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth’s atmosphere. However, predicting the solar cycle is challenging. Current understanding indicates a short window for prediction best achieved at previous cycle minima. Utilizing magnetic field evolution models for the Sun’s surface and interior we perform the first century-scale, data-driven simulations of solar activity and present a scheme for extending the prediction window to a decade. Our ensemble forecast indicates cycle 25 would be similar or slightly stronger than the current cycle and peak around 2024. Sunspot cycle 25 may thus reverse the substantial weakening trend in solar activity which has led to speculation of an imminent Maunder-like grand minimum and cooling global climate. Our simulations demonstrate fluctuation in the tilt angle distribution of sunspots is the dominant mechanism responsible for solar cycle variability.

Paper is HERE.

It seems the science is not settled. Some scientists say we are headed for long term quiet sun and others more of the same. Only time will reveal the veracity of the various claims. Stay Tuned.

What do you think? Stronger? Weaker? Same?

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8 thoughts on “Solar Cycle 25 Stronger than Cycle 24?

  1. canuck57 February 21, 2019 / 9:26 am

    Well, if they’re right and solar cycle 25 is stronger than solar cycle 24 and the world stops cooling, then we can all expect to be paying a global carbon-tax between 2024 and 2030.

  2. Carolee Kingsford February 21, 2019 / 11:47 am

    It is not about science any longer. It is all about money.

    Have we not learned a Thing.

    Time will tell. Mean time here in Tucson Arizona it will not get over 33° F for 3 days.

    Very Maunder-like weather. I think India has opted for the money theory wins model.

  3. Carlo February 21, 2019 / 3:39 pm

    Yeah? So why is it so cold in Las Vegas. We were dnowed on last night and it is not melting. It is dang cold here!!!

  4. The Atmosphere Guy February 24, 2019 / 3:27 pm

    Some interesting data: – Flagstaff, Arizona had the snowiest day in its history (CNN). The 2.9 feet that fell made Thursday the snowiest single day in recorded history there, destroying the previous record of 31 inches set back in 1915. In Nashville TN, recent rainfall brought the month’s total to 13.5 inches, a new record for February that surpassed the previous record set in 1880.
    Maui, Hawaii, was blanketed in snow at altitudes as low as 6200 feet–the lowest snowfall since 1952. At the 10,023-foot summit of Maui’s Haleakala volcano, many world-class telescopes were frozen solid:
    In Eastern Europe, similar extremes have been recorded, while – rather strangely – Western Europe has seen a very mild spring with unusually high temperatures.
    The clue comes with the weather reports that speak of warm air coming from ‘Unusually Far South’
    As the atmosphere as a whole cools, it contracts, jet streams and cyclonic surface weather patterns transit unusually close to the equator throwing warm air pole-wards while dragging cold towards the equator – the ‘Deep Loop’ concept.
    At surface levels this can give the impression of warming, while in reality the atmosphere is cooling.
    Heat thrown towards the poles will radiate away, normal entropy, exacerbating the cooling effect.
    https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/observations-2019/ May give some interesting data.

  5. Dave February 25, 2019 / 7:21 am

    As an amateur radio operator, I am hoping for more sun spots. For the last year or so, the minimum usable frequency has more often than not been below 18 Mhz making the 17, 15, 12 and 6 meter bands nearly dead.

  6. Gabriel March 7, 2019 / 10:31 am

    According to some physicists present readings and trends on solar parameters may lead to a period of minimum between SC24 and SC25 to keep running till the end of 2020. This would affect pretty much the conclusions of this study.

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