On the Cusp of the Next Grand Minimum?

Definition — cusp: a point of transition between two different states

The transition from the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age was punctuated by extreme climate events, intense storms, floods, and droughts according to Lynn Ingram and Francis Malamud-Roam writing in The West Without Water. According to the authors, the transition from the Little Ice Age to the Modern Warm Period also experienced erratic weather extremes. Wolfgang Behringer, writing in the Cultural History of Climate, found similar transitions to more extreme weather. These extreme record-setting events are a signal that the overall climate is moving to a different state, in other words on the cusp of climate change.

Some recent record events:

Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido: Record cold temperatures, minus 24.4 C, the lowest seen since it began compiling such data in 1957.

Seattle: Coldest February in 30 years, the 4th coldest in 75 years, the 3 years that were colder were 1989, 1949 and 1956. “This month has been so snowy that it is now setting records for daily and monthly totals,” says the National Weather Service.

Minnesota: Minus 38 degrees recorded in Melrose, Minnesota, The nation’s coldest wind chill factor, minus 70, was reported in Ely, Minnesota on 30 January 2019.

Moscow: the Strongest snowstorm in 140 years, 13 Feb 2019

Siberia: Many record lows, details HERE.

Australia: Hottest December since recording started, with Adelaide hit nearly 116 degrees Fahrenheit the last week in January 2019, breaking an 80-year-old record high set in January 1939.

Sierra Nevada: June Mountain picked up 72 inches of snow in 24 hours, 96 in 72 hours. The official record for 24-hour snowfall record is 67 inches, on Jan. 5, 1982.

The proponents of anthropogenic global warming are attributing these extreme weather to human emission of greenhouse gases. However, after looking back through climate history, such as the Cultural History of Climate and The West without Water, I am inclined to attribute these record-breaking events to the transition point for the Next Grand Minimum.

Your thoughts, are we on the cusp, or is it just climate change weather?

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9 thoughts on “On the Cusp of the Next Grand Minimum?

  1. Gabriel February 18, 2019 / 9:42 pm

    Russ, an increasing number of solar physicists say we are already inside the period of a new grand solar minimum and that solar wind will reach a very low point in 2-3 years. In addition the number of albedo neutrons has suffered an estimated increase in-between 13-19% compared to the begining of this century. In the last 2 years neutron counters had experienced never seen before periods of huge spikes which means the GCR is reaching the highest numbers on record (since mid-60’s).

    In subtropical zones of South America which are under the influence of the so-called South Atlantic Geomagnetic Anomaly (SAA) there was record warm during January too the same way as Australia but close to the center of the anomaly (north of Argentina, close to the boarders of Brazil and Uruguay) huge amounts of rainfall (leading to lots of floods) with no possible relation to the ongoing ENSO were verified. Maybe this is related to a possible confirmation of Svensmark’s theory as this the zone presumably is the mostly affected by the GCR.

    The month of February has been notoriously diifferent anyway with temperatures within or bellow expected levels.

    Also the relation between GCR levels and SST of the oceans predicted by Svensmark seems to be a worldwide reality. So let’s wait and see what will happen to the overall cloud cover in the times ahead.

    Definetely present climate change seems to be each day more clearly explained by the solar influence on climate.

    For those of you interested in the recent situation related to the SAA, I suggest reading this communication: ‘First results from the LUCID-Timepix spacecraft payload onboard the
    TechDemoSat-1 satellite in Low Earth Orbit’ by W. Furnell and others, published by the end of the last year.

    • Russ Steele February 18, 2019 / 11:13 pm

      If we are already in the grand minimum period, then we can expect more record-breaking weather. Looking for some results from the LUCID Timepix spacecraft analysis. Thanks for the heads up.

  2. oldbrew February 19, 2019 / 8:17 am

    Reblogged this on Tallbloke's Talkshop and commented:
    As the ‘official’ (IPCC, Met Office etc.) view insists that more warming lies ahead, other analysts foresee significant cooling. Clearly, somebody has to be wrong.

  3. willybamboo February 19, 2019 / 8:40 am

    The oceans hold a lot of heat energy and the surface sea temperature anomalies SSTA have been awfully warm. If we are entering a grand minimum I would not expect immediate changes in the ocean’s input to weather. There are other weather events, such as SSW sudden warming events over the poles which do correlate strongly with a quiescent sun and have major influence on the notorious ‘polar vortex’. As far as the grand minimum, we will have to wait and see, there are too many unknowns to say where the current low-activity solar cycles are leading. Maybe, maybe not, wait and see.

  4. donald penman February 19, 2019 / 9:21 am

    We have had a strong Azores High in the Atlantic during the past summer and this winter which weather models have shown us over this period I think perhaps it will get colder in Europe during this period of low solar radiation also if the Azores High weakens.

    • Russ Steele February 21, 2019 / 12:52 pm

      Perhaps beyond the cusp?

  5. JB February 19, 2019 / 1:06 pm

    Short term climate changes nestled within several long term cycles, all contributing to a negative slope. The sun spot number minimum in phase with the barycenter minimum in 2043, with a minor coincidence in 2030-31. According to Long Range Weather.com the 400 yr cold cycles have been interspersed with progressively shorter warm periods. The Medieval Warm period was the last time the GISP2 baseline temperature of -31.5ºC was exceeded. With each successive 400 yr cold cycle the lowest temperature has been dropping about 1ºF/millennium.

    The erratic weather patterns seem to coincide with transitions from cold to warm or warm to cold. In the meantime we’re entering another glacial age.

  6. Jaime Jessop February 19, 2019 / 1:09 pm

    Extreme weather events are due to a very weak and meandering jet stream. A similar situation prevailed in the 1970s and back then it was blamed on global cooling! There is evidence for a predominant meridional jet stream pattern during the Maunder Minimum, probably related to a ‘top-down’ influence of low solar UV in the stratosphere. I believe this is what we are seeing happening at the moment. 2019 and 2020 may prove to be very interesting.

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