Forecast for Solar Cycle 25

James A. Marusek has a long, long quest post at Watts Up With That on the future of solar cycle 25 HERE. I found some of the comments on the post most interesting and deserve your attention.  Not everyone agrees with the author.

I predict that the intensity of Solar Cycle 25 will be fairly similar to Solar Cycle 24. I base this prediction on two observations:

1. The pattern seen in Solar Cycles 22 through 25 matches fairly close to the historical pattern seen in Solar Cycles 3 through 6. Refer to Figure 3. Solar Cycle 4 to Solar Cycle 7 corresponded to a period known as the Dalton Minimum. The Dalton Minimum was a time of minimal sunspots, a series of weak solar cycles; but it is not weak enough to be described as a Solar Grand Minima.

2. Solar cycles come in pairs. A solar cycle is in reality a half cycle. It takes two solar cycles to complete one full cycle. In one solar cycle, the magnetic polarity of the sun faces north and in the next it faces south. At the end of 2 solar cycles the sun is back to its original starting point. So they are two different sides of the same coin. The intensity of each half cycle is approximately equal.

In my opinion, the most interesting part of the upcoming solar cycle is the period of minimal sunspotsÅ rather than the period of maximum sunspots because the minimum represents the extreme, the primary actor that foreshadows weather events. When I compared this upcoming period of minimal sunspots with the corresponding period of minimal sunspots during the Dalton Minimum (between solar cycle 5 and 6), I made the following predictive observation. The upcoming period of minimal sunspots will extend from the winter of 2016/17 to the winter of 2024/25. This period is analogous to the similar Dalton Minimum timeframe from the winter of 1806/07 to the winter of 1814/15.

I predict this upcoming period of minimal sunspots shall be longer and deeper than the last one. The changes during this solar minimum shall be more pronounced than during the last solar minimum. These parameters include sunspot numbers, Average Magnetic Planetary Index (Ap index), Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) flux rates, heliosphere volume, the sun’s interplanetary magnetic field strength, solar wind pressure, solar Ultra Violet (UV) flux rate, Earth’s thermosphere volume, solar radio flux per unit frequency at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, and the latitude of Noctilucent Clouds (NLC) sightings.

The full scope of this long article is HERE.


Author: Russ Steele

Freelance writer and climate change blogger. Russ spent twenty years in the Air Force as a navigator specializing in electronics warfare and digital systems. After his service he was employed for sixteen years as concept developer for TRW, an aerospace and automotive company, and then was CEO of a non-profit Internet provider for 18 months. Russ's articles have appeared in Comstock's Business, Capitol Journal, Trailer Life, Monitoring Times, and Idaho Magazine.

5 thoughts on “Forecast for Solar Cycle 25”

  1. A fascinating article and debate! There is, however, an aspect here which is not perhaps receiving the attention it deserves. Much of the discussion naturally revolves around sunspot numbers, however the Solar Magnetic behaviour and geo-impacts as indicated by the Ap index may warrant closer inspection than it gets. If we examine the limited history of this index there are a couple of points that become evident; first is an apparent cycle of a little over 30yrs showing up in the data, second is the sudden sharp decline we have seen over cycle 24. The peak in activity that should have happened became a rather flat ‘non –event’. This combined with new, previously unseen, lows lead us to conclude that the cooling becoming increasingly evident could be just the start.
    Outline coverage here …

      1. Just had a quick scan through the historical data charts for Europe; Comparing deep atmosphere forecast chart for 00z 28th Feb 2018, looks scarily close to 00z 28th Feb 1963. Those who remember will understand !

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