New study suggests a temperature drop of up to 1°C by 2020 due to low solar activity

Watts Up With That?

sc24 and historyFrom the HockeySchtick:  A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds long solar cycles predict lower temperatures during the following solar cycle. A lag of 11 years [the average solar cycle length] is found to provide maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature. On the basis of the long sunspot cycle of the last solar cycle 23, the authors predict an average temperature decrease of 1C over the current solar cycle 24 from 2009-2020 for certain locations.

Highlights

► A longer solar cycle predicts lower temperatures during the next cycle.
► A 1 °C or more temperature drop is predicted 2009–2020 for certain locations.
► Solar activity may have contributed 40% or more to the last century temperature increase.
► A lag of 11 years gives maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature.

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4 thoughts on “New study suggests a temperature drop of up to 1°C by 2020 due to low solar activity

  1. Anthony j. Mengotto June 15, 2014 / 11:59 pm

    Russ, Very good article, but keep in mind for every 1 year longer than the average on the solar cycle length, there is a 0.7c degree drop in temperatures. Remember cycle 24 started in 1/2009. This would mean we are at 5.5 years in to the cycle now. Right at the halve way point of the 11 year average. If solar maximum lasts to the end of this year, then we will be looking at a 12 year solar cycle. And if it goes in to next year, the cycle will be even longer. This is going to be an interesting 6 months, or longer to find out, but it will be worth the wait. Anthony

    • Anthony j. Mengotto June 16, 2014 / 12:38 am

      Russ, I stand to be corrected. Cycle 24 started on 1/2008 shown here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_Cycle_24 This would mean we are at the 6.5 years into the cycle now. That means we are already looking at a 13 year cycle as of now. And if solar maximum lasts to the end of this year, then we will be looking at a 14 year cycle. I should have prof read it before I posted it. Anthony

      • Russ Steele June 16, 2014 / 9:15 am

        Makes it even more interesting. There seems to be a correlation between cycle length and temperature, at least in some regions.

    • Russ Steele June 16, 2014 / 9:13 am

      Agree, we are living in interesting times.

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