U.S. Breadbasket At Risk From Global Cooling NOAA Indicates – Crop Failures, World Hunger A Result?

While left-leaning U.S. politicians, bureaucrats and the partisan mainstream press continue to push the silly catastrophic AGW hysteria from human CO2 emissions, a significant cooling trend (per NOAA) across a critically important global breadbasket continues – if the latest 15-year global cooling trend persists, crop yields will suffer immensely

Winter Wheat Belt Wheat Belt Soy Bean Belt Corn Belt

As has been well documented, global warming has gone AWOL and in some regions of the world, global cooling trends have materialized, which scientists across the world are starting to express concern with.

In the key crop regions of the U.S., there has been an extended cooling trend that persists despite the immense human CO2 emissions released over the last two decades. The above four NOAA charts depict those cooling trends across the a wide swath of American agricultural production. These charts represent the main American corn, soybean, spring and winter wheat growing areas.

What the huge U.S. breadbasket needs at this point is a few years of some good old fashioned global warming that will reverse the potential devastation a mass cooling would deliver to crop yields.

Unfortunately, though, it appears nature is not delivering what the American farmers and ranchers need this spring.

VIA:  http://www.c3headlines.com/2013/04/us-breadbasket-at-risk-from-global-cooling-noaa-indicates-crop-failures-world-hunger-a-result.html

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Global Warming and Climate Change: Science and Politics

Cliff Ollier

School of Earth and Environmental Studies, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia Department of Geoecology and Palaeogeography, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University, Lublin, Poland  

Abstract:

The threat of dangerous climate change from anthropogenic global warming has decreased. Global temperature rose from 1975 to 1998, but since then has levelled off. Sea level is now rising at about 1.5mm per year based on tide gauges, and satellite data suggests it may even be falling. Coral islands once allegedly threat- ened by drowning have actually increased in area. Ice caps cannot possibly slide into the sea (the alarmist model) because they occupy kilometres-deep basins extending below sea level. Deep ice cores show a succession of annual layers of snow accumulation back to 760,000 years and in all that time never melted, despite times when the temperature was higher than it is today. Sea ice shows no change in 30 years in the Arctic. Emphasis on the greenhouse effect stresses radiation and usually leads to neglect of important factors like convection. Water is the main greenhouse gas. The CO2 in the ocean and the atmosphere are in equilibrium: if we could remove CO2 from the atmosphere the ocean would give out more to restore the balance. Increasing CO2 might make the ocean less alkaline but never acid. The sun is now seen as the major control of climate, but not through greenhouse gases. There is a very good correlation of sunspots and climate. Solar cycles provide a basis for prediction. Solar Cycle 24 has started and we can expect serious cooling. Many think that political decisions about climate are based on scientific predictions but what politicians get are projections based on computer models. The UN’s main adviser, the IPCC, uses adjusted data for the input, their models and codes remain secret, and they do not accept respon- sibility for their projections.

Copy of Paper is HERE.

The paper has this to say about The Sun’s Influence: 

The sun is the major control of climate, but not simply by irradiation, and not by irradiation modified by greenhouse gases. Nobody can deny that climate varies, so what causes variation in energy gained from the sun?

Milankovitch cycles result from changes in the distance to the sun, but more important are sun spots and solar cycles. There is a very good cor- relation of sunspots and climate. Periods of low sunspots go with colder climate. The probable mechanism was discovered by Svensmark et al. (2007). During periods of low solar activity (solar minima), more cosmic rays reach Earth, poten- tially creating ultra-small aerosol particles which are precursors to cloud condensation nuclei. This causes more low level cloud formation, more low level clouds means more sunlight reflected back into space, which in turn means less heating of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere. Archibald (2007) pointed out that the longer a solar cycle lasts, the cooler the following solar cycle will be. Solar cycles are normally 11 years long, but solar cycle 23 lasted 12.5years. Solar Cycle 24 has start- ed and we can expect serious cooling. Solar Cycle 23 seems to resemble most closely Solar Cycle 4, and if the trend continues we should be heading for a Dalton Minimum. Ken Schatten, the solar physicist with the best track record in predicting solar cycles, suggests we could be heading for a Maunder Minimum. There is also a De Vries cycle of 210 years, and the last one was 201 years ago, so the next one is due. If the two cycles are superimposed it will be even colder.

 I have been examining the multiple solar cycles for years and have arrived at a similar conclusion. If the two cycles are superimposed we are going to need some warm clothes, but the real danger is much shorter growing seasons, resulting in food shortages. Stay Tuned.

The Sun and Medieval Warm Period in Tibet

The No Tricks Zone has an interesting post debunking Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick, but for the readers of this blog it maybe the connection the Sun played in the warming of the Tibetan Plateau reported in the paper.

You can read the Medieval warmth at the northern Tibetan Plateau casts doubt on Michael Mann’s temperature map  By Dr. Sebastian Lüning HERE, but let us focus on what the Chinese team discovered about the Sun.

A Chinese team of scientists led by He YuXin of the University of Hong Kong, [used] . . .  sediment cores extracted from two different lakes and using the so-called alkenone method, the Chinese scientists reconstructed the temperature development over the past 2000 years for the northern Tibetan Plateau. . . .

From the Abstract:  “Further, our temperature reconstructions, within age uncertainty, can be well correlated with solar irradiance changes, suggesting a possible link between solar forcing and natural climate variability, at least on the northern Tibetan Plateau.”

The surprisingly good synchronicity between sun and climate in the region of study is clearly visible from the study’s chart:

Solar-activity-temp-Tibet

Figure 2: Good agreement between the temperature development at the northern Tibetan Plateau (lower curve) and solar activity over the past 2500 years. From YuXin et al, 2013.

If the sun can warm, it can cool as well. Note the cooling that followed the warming, including the Maunder and Dalton Minimums.

Cold Puts Spring Planting On Hold in Canada

IceAge Now Has this story and some data on the broken records:

Residents are calling it ‘Springter,’ a mix of spring weather and stubborn winter conditions in what seems to be like a never ending winter.

On Monday, temperatures in Saskatoon plunged to minus 15.4C, breaking the previous record of minus 15.0C set in 1893.

Edmonton also dropped to -15.4C, breaking the previous record of minus 13.4C set in 2002.

The bitterly cold air over central Saskatchewan resulted in several low temperature records, including Regina and Assinibola, which both broke records set in 1948. Meanwhile, Kindersley broke a record set in 1942.

Putting a hold on spring planting

“I’m ready to get on with spring and do my spring planting, so this colder weather is putting a hold on everything,” said one Calgarian.

“In some places, daytime highs will remain far below seasonal,” says Brian Dillon, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=
Record_cold_grips_the_Prairies_09_04_2013?ref=ccbox_homepage_topstories

In one year late spring planting can be a small set back, but if spring planting is delayed year after year then we have a serious problem, and a strong indicator we are on the way to the next grand minimum.

Snowfall Records Canada March 2013

The question now is how soon will it melt and farmers can get in to the fields to plant crops?

sunshine hours

The data is from the monthly summaries put out by Environment Canada.

Snowfall is in cm. About 2.5cm to the inch for the non-metric.

Many of these stations are new and only 2 or 4 years of data. But Edmonton Woodbend has 40 years of data and broke the old record by 19.5cm.

New Snowfall Records for March 2013  = Monthly Snowfall Total

Stn_NameProvNew Record (cm)Previous Record (cm)DifferencePrevious Record YearYears of Data
REGINA SIAST SNOWSASK99.52574.520058
PUKASKWA (AUT)ONT477.539.519994
MOOSE JAW SNOWSASK50.219.530.720059
BARRIE LANDFILLONT32.53.52920122
OTTAWA INTLONT31.64.227.420122
UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA MEALTA5832.425.6200626
EDMONTON WOODBENDALTA71.151.619.5200540
GAGETOWN ANB41.922.719.220123
TYNE VALLEY 2PEI

View original post 200 more words

Global Cooling – Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions

Dr. Norman Page,  PhD in Geology, has a long post on Watts Up With That is summarized below. Full post is HERE

3. Summary

  1. Significant temperature drop at about 2016-17
  2. Possible unusual cold snap 2021-22
  3. Built in cooling trend until  at least 2024
  4. Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035  – 0.15
  5. Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100  – 0.5
  6.  General Conclusion – by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed,
  7. By 2650  earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.
  8. The effect of increasing CO2 emissions will be minor but beneficial  – they may slightly ameliorate the forecast cooling and help maintain crop yields .
  9. Warning !!  There are some signs in the Livingston and Penn Solar data that a sudden drop to the Maunder Minimum Little Ice Age temperatures could be imminent – with a much more rapid and economically disruptive cooling than that forecast above which may turn out to be a best case scenario.

I welcome the readers thoughts on Dr Pages analysis.