Is Alaska the Canary in the Coming Ice Age?

From the Alaska Dispatch:

“That may not be news to Alaskans coping with the coldest winter in two decades or to the mariners locked out of the Bering Sea this spring by record ice growth, says author Alex DeMarban.

In the first decade since 2000, the 49th state cooled 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit.

“That’s a “large value for a decade,” the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks said in “The First Decade of the New Century: A Cooling Trend for Most of Alaska.”

The cooling is widespread — holding true for 19 of the 20 National Weather Service stations sprinkled from one corner of Alaska to the other, the paper notes. It’s most significant in Western Alaska, where King Salmon on the Alaska Peninsula saw temperatures drop most sharply, a significant 4.5 degrees for the decade, the report says.

“Most noticeable was that for the first time last year, the Bering Sea ice shelf extended south nearly to the edge of the Alaska Peninsula,” said Don Hatten, the National Weather Service forecaster in King Salmon.

“Researchers blame the Decadal Oscillation, an ocean phenomenon that brought chillier surface water temperatures toward Alaska.”

See entire article, published on December 23, 2012:
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/forget-global-warming-alaska-headed-ice-age

No mention of the Sun and the declining number of spots.

H/T to Ice Age Now for the tip and the link

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Russian Scientists say period of global cooling ahead due to changes in the sun

It has aways been the sun!  I am more inclined to believe Russian scientist who do not have to depend on AGW grants to feed their children, rather than the usual team of rent seeking climate scientist that make up the AGW Cult.

Watts Up With That?

From Radio Voice of Russia:

Russia’s Pulkovo Observatory: “we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years”

Scientists at Russia’s famous Pulkovo Observatory are convinced that the world is in for a period of global cooling.

archibald_1749_2049_projected_solar_cycle

Graph by David Archibald

Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries.

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How Does the Next Ice Age Start – One Snow Flake at a Time

ICE AGE NOW starts with this introduction:

“Most people do NOT realize how short the Canadian growing season is and that the development of new early ripening wheat was a major discovery for Canadian agriculture, says reader Greg. “The snow is slowly melting in the Canadian Prairie, near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. and planting is nearly a month behind already. Ever shortening seasons will wipe out Canadian wheat farming.

“Here is an eye opening article from deep in the wheat belt:”

How does an ice age start? With one snowflake

By Brian Zinchuk

April 17, 2013 – (Excerpts)

Moods were glum throughout Western Canada that spring. April showers were supposed to bring May flowers. Instead, all the precipitation would come as the “white stuff.” Regina kept reporting another centimetre every few days. Roofs started collapsing. Brendenbury lost the roof of its rink. Still, these things can happen any given year.

But by the May long weekend, people really began to worry. There was still snow on the ground. No farmer could plant a crop. Half-million dollar tractor-and-air seeder combinations sat idle…. While that was hard on the pocketbooks, it was worse for the stomach.

By July, three-year-old bales that were used for wind protection were fetching $200 a piece, if you could find them. By September, the beef herd had been culled by 75 per cent. There was no food, anywhere, to feed the cattle. After a brief time when stores couldn’t give away all the recently slaughtered beef, and pork, North America suddenly found itself on a vegan diet, deprived of most of its milk, too. After all, you couldn’t drink milk if you couldn’t feed the cows.

World grain prices quadrupled over four months with the realization that there would be no grain production from the Canadian West, and substantially less from the American plains.

Natural gas prices also shot up, well beyond their 2007 peaks. With people running their furnaces year round, stockpiles dried up and, by fall, drilling resumed in earnest.

“Climate change,” the people were told. “This is what happens when we drive gas-guzzling SUVs and burn coal. The world is getting warmer.”

But it wasn’t…

You can read the rest of Brian’s scary ice age scenario HERE.

 

Unprecedented Ice Conditions In Alaska

Looking for another record to be broken. If we see it broken five years in a row, we might want to start worrying if the next minimum has arrived.

Real Science

The ice at Nenana, Alaska is over four feet thick , and getting thicker.

ScreenHunter_172 Apr. 27 04.00

Nenana Ice Classic

Normally it breaks up this week, and the latest it has ever broken up is two weeks from now.

Nenana Ice Classic

Climate experts tell us that Alaska is the “canary in the coal mine

Scientists say Alaska is like a canary in a coal mine, foreshadowing the types of changes we can expect for the rest of the world.

Scientific American Frontiers . Hot Times in Alaska. Canary in a Coal Mine | PBS

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Temperature change in perspective

Some times it is important to stop and take look at the long view to put climate change in perspective. It appears we are entering the little ice age weather patterns of the past.

Watts Up With That?

Guest post by Ed Hoskins

clip_image002

The UK Met Office long term Central England Temperature record[1] has kept a continuous and consistent data set since the 1660s. It appears to be reliable and to have maintained its quality. It has not been adjusted as have so many other official temperature records.Although the CET record covers only a small part of the northern hemisphere, it has shown a consistent rise since the end of the little ice age in 1850 at a rate of about +0.45°C / century or about +0.67°C in the last 150 years. This rise accords well with other temperature records.

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Cold and snow wave grips the USA, nearly 10,000 cold and snow records set in the last six weeks

More global warming evidence?

Watts Up With That?

Paging Seth Borenstein! 9787 new cold and snow records since March 13th

If this were a month of a heatwave across thus USA, like last July, you can bet it would be MSM headlines all over the place and breathless stories from AP’s Seth Borenstein and pronouncements from the Mannian climate cartel about how all this is connected to global warming, er climate change, er climate disruption.

9787_snowcold_records_USA

Source here

But nary a peep so far about this cold wave lasting over a month that has generated 9787 records posted by NOAA/NWS.

Conversely, here is the list of high temperatures, and high minimum temperatures.

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Wet, cool spring delaying Canadian planting

Details in Ag Week

“A wet, cool spring is delaying planting on the Canadian prairie, but farmers and others generally say they aren’t terribly concerned yet,” says this article in Ag Week.

“We’re a week or 10 days behind normal,” says Mike Jubinville, president of Winnipeg, Manitoba-based Pro Canada Farmer, noting that some areas received double their normal snowfall this year.

“But I don’t want to get overly worked up about this. We’ve seen stressed springtime conditions many, many times over the years. Generally speaking, the crop gets in,” he says. “One way or another, the ingenuity of the producer will get the crop in.”

“Canada traditionally is the world’s leading exporter of spring wheat, durum, canola and malting barley — all of which are prominent crops on the Northern Plains of the United States, too. What happens on the Canadian prairie affects U.S. crop prices, and vice versa.”

In a normal year, William Nicholson, who farms near Shoal Lake, Manitoba, is planting by May 1. This year, because of heavy, slow-to-melt snow, he doesn’t expect to be planting until mid- or late May.

“The immediate concern, however, is the persistent snow cover that blocks planting.”

“Everybody would love to have it melted already,” says James Loewen, grain manager with Bunge Canada in Altona, Manitoba.

This is weather. However, if it starts happening year over year it will be climate change.

U.S. winter wheat growers assess recent frost damage

Details at the Western Producer:

winter wheat frost

A struggling U.S. winter wheat crop suffered what could be a serious blow last week when temperatures dropped below freezing for long stretches twice in 48 hours in large portions of the southern plains.

“There’s a pretty widespread area where plants look really bad right now because of that freeze event,” said Justin Gilpin, chief executive officer of the Kansas Wheat Commission.

The damage is most severe in places like western Kansas where the crop was already stressed due to a prolonged winter drought.

Gilpin said crops were frozen in Kansas, eastern Colorado, Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle by temperatures that dropped below -7 C in some areas.

“Certainly we lost some wheat and lost bushels,” he said.

Although it is early to be attaching a number to the combined drought and freeze damage, Gilpin wouldn’t be surprised if the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop ends up 25 percent smaller than last year’s 27.3 million tonne harvest.

The true level of damage will not be known, until it warms up. This is just weather, it become climate if it happens year after year.  This is just an April frost, it will be of real concern if is comes in June. Stay Tuned.

Paper predicts a sharp decline in solar activity!

A new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Research shows solar activity peaked at the end of the 20th century, but predicts a strong decrease in solar activity until around 2100 AD to low levels similar to the Dalton Minimum.

Figure 4

Prediction of solar activity for the next 500 years

Friedhelm Steinhilber, Jürg Beer

Abstract: Recently a new low-noise record of solar activity has been reconstructed for the past 9.400 years by combining two 10 Be records from Greenland and Antarctica with 14 C from tree rings [F. Steinhilber et al., 2012]. This record confirms earlier results, namely that the Sun has varied with distinct periodicities in the past. We present a prediction of mean solar magnetic activity averaged over 22 years for the next 500 years mainly based on the spectral information derived from the record of the past solar activity. Assuming that the Sun will continue varying with the same periodicities for the next centuries we extract the spectral information from the past and apply it in two different methods to predict the future of solar magnetic activity. First, the two methods are tested by predicting past changes. Our methods are able to predict periods of high and low solar activity for a few centuries in the past. However, they are less successful in predicting the correct amplitude. Then, the methods were used to predict the period 2000-2500. Both methods predict a period of low activity around 2100 AD. Between 2100 AD and 2350 AD the results are inconsistent regarding the duration of the low activity state in 2100 AD and the level of activity until 2250 AD. Around 2250 AD both methods predict a period of moderate activity. After 2350 AD both methods point to a period of high activity. The period of high activity will end around 2400 AD and will be followed by a period of moderate activity.

There is more analysis at The Hockey Schtick HERE.