Sorry Global Warming Alarmists, The Earth Is Cooling

Peter Ferrara, Writing in the Forbes Magazine last May, following the Heartland Climate Conference in Chicago.

Don Easterbrook, Professor Emeritus of Geology at Western Washington University,  publicly predicted in 2000 that global temperatures would decline by 2010,  something the political scientists at the UN’s IPCC did not know or did not think significant.

 Well, the results are in, and the winner is….Don Easterbrook.  Easterbrook also spoke at the Heartland conference, with a presentation entitled “Are Forecasts of a 20-Year Cooling Trend Credible?”  Watch that online and you will see how scientists are supposed to talk: cool, rational, logical analysis of the data, and full explanation of it.  All I ever see from the global warming alarmists, by contrast, is political public relations, personal attacks, ad hominem arguments, and name calling, combined with admissions that they can’t defend their views in public debate.

Easterbrook shows that by 2010 the 2000 prediction of the IPCC was wrong by well over a degree, and the gap was widening.  That’s a big miss for a forecast just 10 years away, when the same folks expect us to take seriously their predictions for 100 years in the future.  Howard Hayden, Professor of Physics Emeritus at the University of Connecticut showed in his presentation at the conference that based on the historical record a doubling of CO2 could be expected to produce a 2 degree C temperature increase.  Such a doubling would take most of this century, and the temperature impact of increased concentrations of CO2 declines logarithmically.  You can see Hayden’s presentation online as well.

Because PDO cycles last 25 to 30 years, Easterbrook expects the cooling trend to continue for another 2 decades or so.  Easterbrook, in fact, documents 40 such alternating periods of warming and cooling over the past 500 years, with similar data going back 15,000 years.  He further expects the flipping of the ADO to add to the current downward trend.

But that is not all.  We are also currently experiencing a surprisingly long period with very low sunspot activity.  That is associated in the earth’s history with even lower, colder temperatures.  The pattern was seen during a period known as the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830, which saw temperature readings decline by 2 degrees in a 20 year period, and the noted Year Without A Summer in 1816 (which may have had other contributing short term causes).

Even worse was the period known as the Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1715, which saw only about 50 sunspots during one 30 year period within the cycle, compared to a typical 40,000 to 50,000 sunspots during such periods in modern times.  The Maunder Minimum coincided with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, which the earth suffered from about 1350 to 1850.  The Maunder Minimum saw sharply reduced agricultural output, and widespread human suffering, disease and premature death.

Such impacts of the sun on the earth’s climate were discussed at the conference by astrophysicist and geoscientist Willie Soon, Nir J. Shaviv, of the Racah Institute of Physics in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and Sebastian Luning, co-author with leading German environmentalist Fritz Vahrenholt of The Cold Sun.

Easterbrook suggests that the outstanding question is only how cold this present cold cycle will get.  Will it be modest like the cooling from the late 1940s to late 1970s?  Or will the paucity of sunspots drive us all the way down to the Dalton Minimum, or even the Maunder Minimum?  He says it is impossible to know now.  But based on experience, he will probably know before the UN and its politicized IPCC.

New book finds at least 63% of global warming was due to the Sun

The Hockey Schtick has the details:

A chapter in the book, Global Warming – Impacts and Future Perspective, published in September 2012, finds that at least 63% of the global warming of the past 400 years was due to an increase in solar activity. According to the authors, “The sudden increases of solar activity that occurred after the 1724 and 1924 solar dynamo transitions have been accompanied by sudden increases of average surface temperature of 0.2ºC and 0.34ºC after 1724 and 1924, respectively. Therefore, out of the total increase in global temperature of ~ 0.8ºC during the past 400 years, less than 0.3ºC may be of non-solar origin, in agreement with previous results.” The authors predict a decrease in solar activity during the 21st century will result in global cooling of 0.64ºC over the next 100 years.

image3FIGURE 3.

Solar dynamo transitions in (a) sunspot number maxima (stars) and geomagnetic index at minima (diamonds). The black diamonds indicates the polar cycles at which the transitions occur and the horizontal green line the transition point (93.4 spot, 10.4 nT) level [1]. The letter D indicates the short type Dalton Minimum. The green and black triangles are the predictions from [11] (upper black),[2] (green) and [3] (lower black), respectively. (b): SSC Index and Flare Index (blue line). (c): total solar irradiance, TSI. In (b) and (c) the horizontal green lines are at the average value along the Regular Oscillations episode and the black numbers are the conventional numbering of the strongest maxima occurring after 1924.

8. Conclusions

The sudden increases of solar activity that occurred after the 1724 and 1924 solar dynamo transitions, has been accompanied by a sudden increases of average surface temperature of 0,2ºC, and 0.34º after 1724 and 1924, respectively. Therefore, of the total increases of the average temperature level, that was of ~ 0.8ºC along the last 400 years, less than 0.3 º may be of non solar origin, in agreement with previous results [15]

A solar dynamo transition to a new Grand Episode of lower solar activity is occurring, that would be settled at sunspot cycle #24 [1, 14, 15]. It would be alike [37] to the 1724-1924 Regular Oscillations episode. In fact sunspot cycle maximum #24, that would occur at 2013.5, is being the weakest of the last 100 hundred years [13], being alike to sunspot cycle maximum #12 occurring at 1883.

While greenhouse gases emission continued increasing at present, there is a hiatus in temperature increases since 10 years ago. This may be the first indication of the impact of the current solar dynamo transition on climate cooling. However, at latitudes above the 64° (North and South) temperature it is still increasing fast as much as there is a acceleration of the ice-melting since 1980 [52-54] and some models indicates that the ice feedback albedo mechanism due to this acceleration is appreciable at the poles [56] and also at height latitudes [57]. This may indicates that this feedback mechanism is still not well represented in IPCC climate models, since they underestimate Arctic sea ice thinning by a factor of 4 and fail to capture the recent sea ice kinematic acceleration [54]. Or it may indicate that a heating source that mainly operates at the polar cap and high latitudes is still missing in those models, and, as suggested in [9, 10] this source may be solar storms, which after the mid-1970s have duplicated their average intensity and frequency as compared with those occurring at the XIX century.

Natural sources of climate changes has been reviewed here, and from present knowledge of them it was concluded that in the long term (time scales above the semi-secular) the main sources of climate change along the past century were greenhouse gases and solar activity, and that the same would happen along the current, XXI century. The episode of Regular Oscillations in solar activity that is starting by now would endure for the rest of the present millennium [37]. If this prediction and the principal source of polar and high latitudes atmosphere heating were solar storms, the sudden decreases of the geoeffectiveness of solar storms to a 50 % of its values prevailing along the XX century Gran Maximum will lead to global temperature to decreases from the present average level of ~0.2°C to the same level that along the 1724-1924 Regular Oscillation episode, that is -0.44°C. The time that it will take to the climate system to react to current decreases of solar activity sensitively depends on the ice-albedo feedback mechanism that is still not well known. An estimation of this time is possible by observing that is has taken ~150 for the recovering from the Little Ice Age [51, 52]. The fact that the principal solar source of atmosphere heating at the poles and high latitudes has already decreased to its values prevailing prior 1924, allows us estimating that the expected decreases in 0.64°C would occurs in about 100 years. Solar storms has decreased yet to values alike to that prevailing at the XIX century, but TSI will decreases substantially only by sunspot cycle maximum #25 (that will occur at ~2024), a appreciable decreases of temperature would be observed only by 2030.

In the case that the main source of heating of the last 100 years were greenhouse gases [which this paper argues is not the case], the solar activity decreases would contribute with a cooling of only ~0.3°C, and taking into account the projections of temperature from climate models [50], the sudden decreases of solar activity that is going on would mitigate the impact of greenhouse gases on global warming only by the forthcoming 20 years

More graphics at the Hockey Schtick