Watts Up With That?

Have we hit solar max?

NOAA’s SWPC recently updated their solar metrics graphs, and it seems to me like we may have topped out for solar cycle 24. There doesn’t seem to be any evidence of resurgence in any of the three metrics. Granted one month does not a cycle make, but it has been over a year now since the peak of about 95 SSN in October 2011, and there has been nothing similar since. Unlike the big swings of last solar max around 2000-2001, there’s very little variance in the signals of the present, demonstrating that the volatility expected during solar max just isn’t there.

Latest Sunspot number prediction


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Author: Russ Steele

Freelance writer and climate change blogger. Russ spent twenty years in the Air Force as a navigator specializing in electronics warfare and digital systems. After his service he was employed for sixteen years as concept developer for TRW, an aerospace and automotive company, and then was CEO of a non-profit Internet provider for 18 months. Russ's articles have appeared in Comstock's Business, Capitol Journal, Trailer Life, Monitoring Times, and Idaho Magazine.

3 thoughts on “”

    1. Sean,

      Thanks for the link, very interesting. I always worry about “adjustments” and modeling. It is hard to keep the bias in check. I will spend some more time looking at the charts. Sometimes errors need to be corrected.

  1. Russ,
    I think this is all we’re going to get. It seemed like we were ramping up toward the end of last year, but then after Dec. 2012 nothing. It looks like that was the outlier and we’re back to normal for this cycle. Even Leif mentioned the potential for a deeper Maunder type minimum for 24. These things historically don’t resolve themselves over one cycle either. Cycle 25 could be a complete dud.

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