Weather Prediction to Address LIA Weather Patterns

Russ Steele

Piers Corbyn, Astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com said:

“After studying weather developments in the last two months we have introduced some modifications to our Solar Lunar Action Technique. SLAT7a – which was about improving selection of detailed look-backs using lunar factors more strongly – did superbly at predicting the exceptionally cold weather in the first three weeks of May but does not well see the VERY RAPID (“Little Ice Age” type) changes experienced and specifically missed the sudden warming of around 22nd. 

“Although our ‘at least 6 out of 8 weather periods basically correct’ in a month was met in May we want to improve on that and better handle the “approach to LIA weather types” REGIME the world is now in.

Solar Climate Change IS HERE AND NOW and is characterized by:

  • On the Sun a generally quieter and magnetically more confused state and slower solar wind.
  • Very large amplitude swings in the Jet stream (NH and SH) with the Jet stream average position shifted equator-wards.
  • General Cooling especially of temperate zones and simultaneous warm and cold (larger) regions marking different ‘ends’ of jet stream large amplitude wave effects.
  • Very rapid changes in weather particularly in temperate zones
  • Rapid changes in standard parameters – NAO, AO etc
  • Stark extremes including more giant hail and tornadic developments.
  • An increase in major earthquakes and volcanism
  • Serious limitations of the powers of standard meteorology even 1 or 2 days ahead at times. This was in evidence through most of April and May. These problems will largely continue for at least 25 years and no amount of tweeking standard models or increasing computer power even a thousand fold will overcome it. Standard Meteorology is past it’s peak.

H/T to Climate Realists for this information.

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Nicola Scafetta – Sun is Entering a Grand Minimum

Russ Steele

David Whitehouse Interviews Nicola Scafetta, a scientist at Duke University and at the Active Cavity Radiometer Solar Irradiance Monitor Lab which is associated with the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, at the Global Warming Policy Foundation web site.

Scafetta claims that “at least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system.” As his theory is controversial, Whitehouse asked him to outline it. For the near future Scafetta predicts a stabilisation of global temperature or cooling until 2030-2040.

Here is the money question, with the answer we are headed for another grand minimum.

Read the rest of the post HERE.

Q. How are your forecasts comparing with global temperatures?

The astronomical harmonic temperature model has been tested in its hindcast/forecast capabilities and performs quite well.

For example I calibrated the model in the period 1850-1950 and was able to reproduce all decadal multidecadal variation observed from 1950 to 2012, and vice versa. A full model that also included a possible anthropogenic component has been calibrated from 1970 to 2000 and was able to accurately forecast the temperature trend from 2000 to 2012.
About the solar harmonic model: it has been constructed by using physical information obtained in the period 1750-2010 and was able to hindcast all major solar and climatic variability observed during the Holocene (12,000 years). For example the model approximately hindcast the little ice age, medieval warm period, Dark Age cold period, roman warm period etc. The model reconstruct all secular scale oscillations observed in temperature and solar records for 2000 years at least: these include the Maunder minimum, Dalton minimum   and other grand solar minima. Of course the model predicts the current warm period and a 60-year major modulation observed in the temperature since 1850. Thus the model may give some good idea about the future too. The sun is entering in a grand minimum that will reach the lowest level around in the 2030s and reach a new maximum in 2060s, the temperature will be partially regulated by this cycle. [My emphasis.]

Steady weakening of Sun’s energy can affect Earth

PUNE: A recent research by the Radio Astronomy Centre, National Centre for Radio Astrophysics (NCRA) of the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) has found that there has been a steady weakening of the Sun’s magnetic field and its associated solar wind in the interplanetary space. According to the study, these changes can have a greater impact on the earth’s atmosphere than previously thought.

If such a steady weakening of the Sun’s magnetic energy continues for one or two solar cycles, it may lead to a ‘mini’-ice age kind of situation, similar to that which occurred in the 17th Century, states the study. According to the researchers, highly energetic charged particles, which are otherwise prevented by the Sun’s strong magnetic field, now plunge into the magnetically weak inner space.

More detail HERE.

Predictions that We Are On Cusp of the Next Grand Minimum

Russ Steele

David Archibald has an interesting post at Watts Up With That titled: Premonitions of the Fall (in temperature). The part that most intrigued me was the discussion of the research by Libby and Pandolfi who based their forecast of long term cooling on Kings Canyon tree rings.  David suggests it was the most successful current predictions of a potential  long term cooling period.

The most successful prediction of the current minimum, in terms of lead time and detail, was made by two researchers in the US later that decade. Using tree ring data from redwoods in Kings Canyon in California, in 1979 Libby and Pandolfi forecast that, “by running this function into the future we have made a prediction of the climate to be expected in King’s Canyon; the prediction is that the climate will continue to deteriorate on the average, but that after our present cooling-off of more than the average decay in climate, there will be a temporary warming up followed by a greater rate of cooling-off.”

In a Los Angeles Times interview, Libby and Pandolfi gave a more detailed forecast:

“The forecast is for continued cool weather all over the Earth through the mid-1980s, with a global warming trend setting in thereafter for the rest of the century – followed by a severe cold snap that might well last through the first half of the 21st century.”

“Both the isotope record and the thermometer record show neat agreement for the cold decades at the ends of the 17th and 18th centuries, when temperatures fell by 1-10th to 2-10ths of a degree.”

“More recently, the world has enjoyed an agricultural boom during the past 70 years or so. The Earth’s annual average temperature has risen by about 1 to 1½ degrees, about as much of an increase as the decrease during the Little Ice Ages, during this interval.

When she and Pandolfi project their curves into the future, they show lower average temperatures from now thorugh the mid-1980s. “Then,” Dr. Libby added, “we see a warming trend (by about a quarter of 1 degree Fahrenheit) globally to around the year 2000. And then it will get really cold – if we believe our projections. This has to be tested.”

How cold? “Easily one or two degrees,” she replied, “and maybe even three or four degrees.”

The remarkable thing about the Libby and Pandolfi prediction is that they got the fine detail right, up to the current day, which gives a lot of credence to their projection for the next fifty years.

You can read the rest of the article HERE. It has some other interesting projections, including this one:

A Finnish tree ring study (http://lustiag.pp.fi/holocene_trends1000_INQUA.pdf) followed in 2007 – Timonen et al. This is a portion of a figure from that study showing a forecast cold period starting about 2015 that is deeper and broader than any cold period in the previous 500 years:

Last Ice Age arrived in just six MONTHS

by Robert Felix, writing at Ice Age Now

‘It would be the equivalent of taking Britain and moving it to the Arctic over the space of a few months.’

It took just six months for a warm and sunny Europe to be engulfed in ice, according to this study

According to geological sciences professor William Patterson, who led the research, ‘It would be the equivalent of taking Britain and moving it to the Arctic over the space of a few months.’

Professor Patterson’s findings reinforce the theory that the earth’s climate can switch between warm and cold incredibly quickly.

Professor Patterson scraped off layers of mud just 0.5mm thick from a lake in Western Ireland. Each layer represented three months of sediment deposition, so he could measure changes in temperature over very short periods.

He found that temperatures had plummeted, with the lake’s plants and animals rapidly dying over just a few months

The subsequent mini Ice Age lasted for 1,300 years.

It may have been a ‘mini’ ice age geologically speaking, but for anyone living at the time, 1,300 years would have spanned how many generations?

Let’s see. If you take 1,300 years and divide it by 21, you get 61 generations.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1227990/Ice-Age-took-just-SIX-months-arrive–10-years.html

via Last Ice Age arrived in just six MONTHS.

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I think that this research needs to be supported by other methods, using different locations in Europe. Looking at the historical record, it is clear some of the cooling too place in 10 to 30 years, with the LIA cooling being quite rapid.

We could be at the doorsteps of another Ice Age

Russ Steele

Robert at Ice Age Now has posted an article that supports the idea that we are on the cusp of the next grand minimum.  Appreciate your feedback.

We could be at the doorsteps of another Ice Age

By F. Guimaraes

Recent studies and observations indicate that we’re entering a phase of very low solar cycles. The present cycle C24 is already showing signs of being lower than C14 at the beginning of the XX century http://www.leif.org/research/Polar%20Fields%20and%20Cycle%2024.pdf and http://www.leif.org/research/SC14-and-24.png , and cycle C5 at the lower point of the Dalton minimum http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc5_sc24.png .This means that C24 is showing signs that we could be entering a new Maunder minimum anytime soon.

The polar fields should have flipped at the end of cycle C23, around 2008-2009, but they continued with the same polarity, showing a stretched pattern http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Polar-Fields-1966-now.png similar to what happened at the end of the 1960′s but more pronounced, which could lead to “break” of the field into a “quadripolar” mode very soon.This is another indication of the very low intensity of the present cycle.This low intensity could lead to a period of no sunspots as observed during the Maunder minimum between ~ 1640 to 1710 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png , which could be the realization of the so called “Livingston-Penn” effect, which predicts a similar phenomenon in the near future http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/livingston-penn_sunspots2.pdf http://www.leif.org/research/LivingstonPenn%20Data%20and%20Findings%20so%20far.pdf .

Therefore, all the above and other analyzes there is more, eg., the pattern of 90k-10k years characteristic of Glacial and Interglacial periods, etc. indicate that the prediction of a “kill shot” from the Sun by Patrick Geryl and others, will not happen, quite the opposite: we could be at the doorsteps of another Ice Age.When asked what he thought of the “kill shot” model during our times, Leif Svaalgard called it “sensationalism”.Robert’s book “Not by Fire but by Ice” has it’s name for a reason.

People are being lured to look in the wrong direction by MSM, IPCC and others, but the facts are very clear and show a completely different problem that humanity will have to face very soon.A problem of much colder weather worldwide, not hotter.

via We could be at the doorsteps of another Ice Age.

One the Cusp: For 10 Year, Winters are Becoming Colder — GISS Data

Peppe Caridi writing at MetroWeb.eu:

After the issuance of the GISS global data for the winter quarter from December to February 2011-2012, from a first superficial analysis that catches the eye more than any other defect, is like the winters are getting colder in the last 10 years, even with a decline in average world temperatures by nearly two degrees Fahrenheit (-1.9 ° C to be exact!) in the last decade, with reference to the winter quarter. 

As we can see from the map, the area has cooled more than was Asian, but also Europe (especially central / western and northern Europe) and North America, especially in Alaska and the U.S. center / Western (as well as in central Canada / Western) have been affected by negative anomalies, while in some areas of Australia, the Arctic, and the Middle East, Africa, Central and South Atlantic, there were positive anomalies, however, less clear than those cold, especially in the great continent of Asia. 

Russ Comments:

It took about 30-50 years to go from the warmest point of the Medieval Warming Period to the beginning of the Little Ice Age. We could be about 10 years, with acceleration yet to come.

On the Cusp: Fruit Orchards Across Nation Dealing with Late Frost

Russ Steele

This is a summery from Tom Nelson’s Blog

Weather bruises fruit crop | Local | News | Chatham Daily News

CEDAR SPRINGS – Damage is still being assessed, but fruit farmers across Chatham-Kent report extensive losses from killer frost on April 29.

The damage is the worst since 1945, according to veteran orchard owner

Commercial cherry orchards decimated by bad weather – Bakersfield.com

Owners of local cherry tree orchards are assessing the damage after badly timed unusual weather decimated this year’s cherry crop.

Steve Murray, owner of Murray Family Farms off Highway 58 just east of Bakersfield, called the damage to this year’s crop “unprecedented.”

“We’ve never seen it this bad before,” said Murray

Frost took a bite out of central Pennsylvania’s fruit crops | PennLive.com

In the northwestern part of the state, The Erie Times-News reported some farmers lost 80 percent to 90 percent of their fruit crops.

Rich Erdle, member services director for the National Grape Cooperative, which owns Welch’s, told the paper that there is significant damage to grapes from Ohio to Pennsylvania and New York. Erdle said it might be the worst frost damage to grapes in 35 years, though final estimates aren’t in yet.

On the Cusp: Heavy Frost Hits Canada Prairies

Russ Steele

Canola growers pondering their next steps after heavy frost hit some regions of the Prairies over the weekend will need to wait a few days for some of the answers, the Canola Council of Canada suggests.

Some canola-growing areas of southern Alberta logged temperatures as low as -8 C over the weekend, the council said, leaving growers wondering whether the crop could survive, whether they need to reseed and when or if they should resume weed control.

It may take a few days to accurately gauge a frost-touched crop’s survival rate, the council said.