In a discussion of computer model temperature prediction accuracy, Dr Don J. Easterbrook, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA concluded that Hansen’s computer models were not standing up the reality. More details HERE. Here is reality overlaid on the computer models.
Dr Easterbrook writes in his PDF analysis of computer models of interest to the readers of this blog.
As for the skeptics predictions, mine were based on recurring climate cycles that can be traced back at least 400 years, long before CO2 could have been a factor. Using the concept that ‘the past is the key to the future,’ I simply continued the past, well- documented temperature patterns into the future and offered several possible scenarios beginning about 2000: (1) moderate, 25-30-year cooling similar to the 1945 to 1977 cooling, (2) more intense, 25-30-year cooling, similar to the more severe cooling from 1880to 1915, (3) more severe, 25-30-year cooling similar to the Dalton Minimum cooling from 1790 to 1820; or very severe cooling (the Little Ice Age) similar to the Maunder Minimum cooling from 1650 to 1700. So far, my cooling prediction, made in 1998, appears to be happening and is certainly far more accurate than any of the model predictions, which called for warming of a full degree F. So far cooling this past decade has been moderate, more like the 1945-1977 cooling, but as we get deeper into the present Grand Solar Minimum, the cooling trend may become more intense.
Here is a look at the current tread.
Now the question is, will this downward trend continue?