Joe and Joe on the coming winter

Russ Steele

Joe Bastardi and Joe D’Aleo, WeatherBell Analytics, have some thoughts to share on the coming winter as the La Niña returns to the Pacific.

 Weatherbell sees the impact of this return La Nina will be again global in nature and significant. Another harsh winter is expected in China and at least the first half of the winter in North America and Western Europe. More heavy snow will accompany the cold as our outlook will show next week.

With widespread cooling, WeatherBell Analytics Meteorologists Joe Bastardi and Joe D Aleo are predicting the global temperature, which has average near 0.2C above normal this year after being over 0.4C above normal last year, will drop to near -0.15C BELOW by March. This is similar to what we saw in 2008. This will mean the yearly cooling trend, off the warm year of 2010, which is underway now, will continue in 2012, which is liable to be the coolest year since the late 1990s.

You can down load the PDF HERE, but Joe and Joe conclude:

 The bottom line is a global temperature drop is coming to the coldest levels in at least several years, and there are winter implications that if you get the jump on, may be of benefit to you.

I am suggesting that you make sure you have enough fuel for your generator if you have one, and if you do not, you consider getting one before the snow flys. A few extra cords of wood for the fire place might come in handy. We bought a snow blower and I need to get a couple can of gas before the snow blankets Banner Mt.

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Early Winter in Switzerland

Russ Steele

It is still summer in St Moritz, but citizens recently experiences an early winter blizzard.  Watt Up With That has the details.

Global Warming alarmists have long claimed that snowfall would soon be a thing of the past in the Swiss Alps, that the glaciers would melt, tourists would leave, and the ski industry would die. There CERTAINLY would not be any snowfall at lower altitudes, or any snowfall even before the official start of autumn. Yet today there fell snow as low as 1200 meters, with heavy falls in St. Moritz, a very early time for a blizzard in the alps.

Significant snowfall at St. Moritz on September 19th

via Early Winter in Switzerland | Watts Up With That?.

Yes, it is only weather, but how many early weather events would take to constitute a trend?  We have had some early snow in Colorado and Hawaii. Where will the next early snow storm be?

Record low temps in 39 states in the first 18 days of September 2011

Russ Steele

A regular reader Steve Enos has mentioned the high temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma several, but what about all those record low temperatures in 39 states?  Ice Age Now has the details from NOAA:

 924 broken records + 408 tied records = 1,332 total, just through the 18th.

According to NOAA, record low temperatures were reported in ID, NC, OR, TX, VA, WA, CA, NV, WY, CO, FL, GA, HI, LA, MT, NE, SD, AL, AZ, KS, NM, OK, PA, WI, AR, IA, IL, MI, MN, MO, MS, TN, IN, ND, OH, MD, MA, NY, and WV.

Where is the lame-stream media, records are being broken?  Oh wait, these were cold records, they only report broken heat records.

Editors note: Remember this is only weather.

Forbes: Can We Really Call Climate Science A Science?

Russ Steele

This is a guest post by Anthony Watts at his WUWT blog. I was going to post on the subject, but Anthony has done a great job of excerpting the salient points of the Forbes article by Paul Roderick Gregory. [ Note is is only part of Anthony’s post, he also deals with a Skeptical Science issue.]

Excerpts from Forbes:

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Three recent events have brought the controversy over climate science back into the news and onto my radar screen:

First, Ivar Giaever, the 1973 winner of the Nobel Prize in physics, resigned from the American Physical Society over his disagreement with its statement that “the evidence (on warming alarmism) is incontrovertible.” Instead, he writes that the evidence suggests that “the temperature has been amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely improved in this ‘warming’ period.”

Second, the editor of Remote Sensing resigned and disassociated himself from a skeptical paper co-authored  by University of Alabama Climate Scientist Roy Spencer after an avalanche of criticism by “warmists.” His resignation brings to mind Phil Jones’ threat to “get rid of troublesome editors” (cited above).

Third, the New York Times and other major media are ridiculing Texas Governor Rick Perry for saying that global warming is “not proven.” Their message: Anyone who does not sign on to global warming alarmism is an ignorant hayseed and clearly not presidential material.

What lessons do I, as an economist, draw from these three events?

First: The Giaever story starkly disputes warmist claims of “inconvertible evidence.”   Despite the press’s notable silence on such matters, there are a large number of prominent scientists with solid scholarly credentials who disagree with the IPCC-Central Committee. Those who claim “proven science” and “consensus” conveniently ignore such scientists.

Second: As someone with forty years experience with peer reviewed journals. I can testify that the Remote Sensing editor’s resignation and public discreditation of  Spencer’s skeptical paper would be considered bizarre and unprofessional behavior in any other scholarly discipline.

Third: The media is tarring  and feathering  Rick Perry, we now see,  for agreeing with Nobel laureate Giaever and a host of other prominent scientists.  I guess if  Perry is a know-nothing Texas hick (or worse, a pawn of  Big Oil) so is every other scientist who dares to disagree with the IPCC Central Committee. Such intimidation  chillingly makes politicians, public figures, and scientists fearful of deviating one inch from orthodoxy. They want to avoid Orwell’s “watching their comrades torn to pieces after confessing to shocking crimes.” How many are willing to shoulder that burden?

via Forbes: Can We Really Call Climate Science A Science? | Watts Up With That?.

Early freeze damaged Minnesota’s crops

Freeze Update from the Twin Cities

Thursday’s freeze caused significant damage to the state’s soybean crop, while also hurting many of the state’s cornfields, University of Minnesota agronomists said Friday.

“Because there were so many fields that had significant loss, (yield losses) could be as bad as 10 percent of our total production overall,” said Seth Naeve, the U’s soybean specialist. “It may be worse. That’s a hard thing to say.”

via Early freeze damaged Minnesota’s crops – TwinCities.com.

Records broken in Minnesota

Update from Irish Weather Online:

16 Sep 11 – A cold front swept south from Canada resulting in widespread frost and record low temperatures for the time of year in the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes regions.

Duluth recorded a trace of snow on Wednesday, tying a daily record for early winter snowfall set in September 1984,” says this article on Irish Weather Online.

And with a temperature of just 19F (-7.2C) on Wednesday, International Falls, Minnesota, endured the coldest temperature on record for the time of year and the first time that a local reading in the teens has been recorded during the month of September.

Saskatchewan Canada Early Killing Frost

Russ Steele

Details at the Agriculture News:

Nearly all of the Saskatchewan grainbelt was hit by a killing frost early Wednesday morning, but damage will be confined to late seeded, immature crops.

The mercury dipped below the freezing mark at midnight and did not make it back into positive digits until mid-morning in some areas.

The coldest temperatures were recorded in northwest, north-central and west-central regions. Official Environment Canada lows ranged from minus 5 to minus 7 degrees. Unofficial readings in low-lying areas were as low as minus 10.

The frost was less severe over eastern and southern Saskatchewan, with most centers reporting lows of minus 2 to minus 4.

While this an early frost the damage was minimum.

Everyone agrees the hot weather in late August and the first ten days of September allowed many crops to mature past the stage where they would be hurt by frost.

 Looks like the wheat bell escaped Mother Nature’s wrath his time.

Early Freeze in Minnesota by 15 days.

Russ Steele

KSAX News in Long Prairie Minnesota has the details on the early regional freeze.

Farmers throughout Greater Minnesota prepared Wednesday for an overnight frost that could severely damage crops in a growing season that’s already been shortened by a late start. 

A normal frost isn’t seen until late Sept., but a freeze warning for several counties in the area could mean more work and less pay for crop farmers.

 Willmar Minnesota is just sixty miles from Long Prairie Minnesota. The first recorded fall freeze in Willmar is 1 October. It appears this could be a new early freeze record in the region by almost 15 days.  Stay tuned.

First Frost on the Way for Some Northern States

Russ Steele

AccuWeather has the story by Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

The chilliest air since last spring will sweep into part of the northern U.S. and neighboring Canada, bringing the first frost of the season to some locations.

A large area of high pressure will build southward from northern Canada and will roll into the northern Plains, Midwest and Northeast U.S. this week. 

The much cooler air will first pour into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies today into Tuesday and will spread into the Northeastern U.S. during the second half of the week.

The forecast magnitude of the chilly shot and the overall high pressure area is a little early for the time of year but has happened before. 

The average date of the first frost or freeze is just that, an average.

 I will be following up with news stories on the agricultural impacts of this first frost at the Freezes Tab above.  It may be an early late frost in some locations. Stay Tuned.

Climate change research and 9-11 contribution

Russ Steele

Nigel Calder the co-author of The Chilling Stars: A Cosmic View of Climate Change also posts on his blog Calder’s Updates. This morning ten years after the 9-11 event he reminds us of a climatic footnote to the 9-11 disastrous attack on America by islamic terrorists in his post Warmer days and cooler nights when cosmic rays are scarce

Here’s a reminder of a climatic footnote to the 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington DC, ten years ago this weekend. With civilian aircraft grounded for three days, and without the contrails that usually criss-cross the skies of the USA, the difference between daytime and night-time temperatures at the surface increased. (See the Travis reference below.) Apparently like many other clouds (not all) the contrails reduce sunshine during the day and blanket the loss of heat at night. Take away those man-made clouds and the days become a little warmer and the nights a little cooler. In the jargon: the diurnal temperature range (DTR) increases.

An echo of that mini-climatic event comes with the news that the DTR in Europe increases when there’s a big reduction in cosmic rays arriving at the Earth. With the implication that the skies are less cloudy at such times, it’s strong evidence in favour of Henrik Svensmark’s hypothesis that cosmic rays help to make clouds. The report comes from Aleksandar Dragić and his colleagues at the Institute of Physics in Belgrade. I’m grateful to Bengt Andersson for drawing their paper to my attention. It was published on 31 August and the full text is available here http://www.astrophys-space-sci-trans.net/7/315/2011/astra-7-315-2011.pdf  It’s typical of the pathetic state of science reporting that I still seem to have the story to myself ten days later.

You can read the full post here.