NOAA/NASA Panel Concurs that Solar Cycle 25 will Peak in July 2025

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12/11/2019

 

The NOAA/NASA-co-chaired international Solar Cycle Prediction Panel has released its latest forecast for to forecast Solar Cycle 25. The panel’s consensus calls for a peak in July 2025 (±8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be of average intensity and similar to Cycle 24. The panel additionally concurred that the solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April 2020 (±6 months). If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the seventh longest on record at 11.4 years. In its preliminary forecast released last April, the scientists on the panel forecast that Solar Cycle 25 would likely be weak, much like the current Cycle 24.

“Solar Cycle 25 may have a slow start, but is anticipated to peak with solar maximum occurring between 2023 and 2026, and a sunspot range of 95 to 130. This is well below the average number of sunspots,” the panel said last spring, adding with “high confidence” that Cycle 25 “should break the trend of weakening solar activity seen over the past four cycles.” The panel said the expectation that Cycle 25 would be comparable in size to Cycle 24 suggests that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude seen from Cycle 21 through Cycle 24 has ended and that there is no indication of an approaching “Maunder-type” minimum. Cycle 24 peaked in April 2014 with an average sunspot number of 82. [Emphasis Added]

The Solar Cycle Prediction Panel forecasts the number of sunspots expected for solar maximum, along with the timing of the peak and minimum solar activity levels for the cycle. It is comprised of scientists representing NOAA, NASA, the International Space Environment Services, and other US and international scientists.

Source: NOAA/NASAviaARRL

CLIMATEGATE: Untangling Myth and Reality Ten Years Later

Ross McKitrick and Steve McIntyre have written up reflections on Climategate 10 years later, focusing on the myths promulgated by the climate academic community. It was McKitrick and McIntyre that exposed Michael Mann climate change “Hockey Stick” as bad science, if not outright fraud. You can take a look at those reflections HERE.

Steven McIntyre Tweets: Climategate contains important lessons on how institutions evade responsibility through sly and carefully restrictive terms of reference, unrepresentative inquiry teams, and wrongheaded findings – relevant caveats in the week before Horowitz

 

Shedding New Light on the Sun

parker-probe

This first data from Parker reveals our star, the Sun, in new and surprising ways.

On Dec. 4, 2019, four new papers in the journal Nature describe what scientists have learned from this unprecedented exploration of our star — and what they look forward to learning next.

These discoveries uncover new data about the behavior of the material and particles that dash away from the Sun, bringing scientists closer to answering crucial inquiries about the physics of our star. Moreover, the information Parker has uncovered about how the Sun constantly ejects material and energy will help scientists re-write the models we use to understand and predict the space weather around our planet and understand the process by which stars are created and evolve.

The Techexplorist summarizes the findings HERE .

 

Scientists Predict New Solar Cycle About to Begin

(MSN) The latest 11-year cycle of the sun is almost over and scientists have just released predictions for the next one.

Based on the number of sunspots that formed, scientists considered the last solar cycle, No. 24, “weak.” They predict that the upcoming cycle, No. 25, will be a little more intense but still in the weak category.

This consensus forecast was made public at the annual Space Weather Workshop last week, hosted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

Source

What do you think?  Do you agree with NOAA?  

The Sun’s Role in Climate Change

Dr. Nir Shaviv spoke at a Friends of Science event on June 2, 2015, on Solar Forcing. Dr. Shaviv explained and demonstrated that the sun is an important climate driver but it is missing from the standard climate analyses. As a consequence, the standard (i.e. IPCC) models have a much higher climate sensitivity than the real Earth has, such that future climate response to anthropogenic forcing will be “much more benign” than what alarmists claim.

A video of his talk is here:  https://youtu.be/YtCEW2shDSU

Dr. Nir Shaviv’s slides can be downloaded HERE.  Grand Minimums are mentioned on slide 27.

 

Everything That Happens on Earth Happens in Cycles

It’s a cycle, it’s a cycle, it’s a cycle says Peter Temple who warns we are entering a cooling phase. “[J]ust when we need more energy and warmth, we have politicians trying to tax it out of existence.”

Climate-and-advanced-civilizations
“The sun and the planets are the main driver of climate change on our tiny little planet,” says Temple, and presents his analysis in this video:  https://youtu.be/lZw4DdocxN0

Some Serious Space Weather at Play.

View at Medium.com

Popular Science has the details:

That Time a Bunch of Underwater Mines Exploded and the Sun Was the Only Suspect

Explosives going off without warning is bad news for… well, for everybody. So imagine the U.S. military’s alarm when, on August 4, 1972, it witnessed about two dozen or so spontaneous explosions in the waters off Hon La in North Vietnam. America’s Operation Pocket Money had dropped underwater mines there many weeks before to deter trade ships from venturing to North Vietnam ports. But the mines were only supposed to detonate when ships were around, and Americans surveilling the water from overhead were only seeing clear blue when the bombs went off.

Initially, the explosions were inexplicable. What could have possibly set the mines off? Big marine animals? Equipment malfunctions? Were the North Vietnamese using a secret strategy to blow up the mines remotely?

Over four-and-a-half decades later, we now know the culprit was the sun. According to findings recently published in the journal Space Weather, a powerful solar storm likely triggered the mines’ magnetic sensors and caused them to explode.

“It was a storm of magnificent proportions,” says Delores Knipp, a space weather researcher at the University of Colorado, Boulder and the lead author of the new paper. “It was a big story back in the day, and continues to be a big story.” The storm occurred in between Apollo missions 16 and 17, but it’s generally accepted that the radiation dose would have incapacitated (if not outright killed) astronauts traveling to and from the moon. In addition, other studies on the solar storm found the resulting geomagnetic current created many different power fluctuations in North America. “It’s been a storm that has been known for different effects in different communities.”

Continue reading HERE.

The article concludes:

But Knipp says a general estimation, based on current knowledge, is that these sorts of solar storms hit Earth about once every 70 years — “often enough that we need to be thinking about what types of technologies are subject to harm in these kinds of environments.” The question isn’t really if a storm powerful enough to knock out the power grid and wreck our technological equipment will hit us — but when it will happen, and whether we’ll be ready in time to prepare and safeguard our infrastructure.

I follow space weather on YouTube daily on the Suspicious Observer channel and weekly on space physicist Tamitha Skov’s channel. We should all pay close attention to our unstable star.

View at Medium.com

Scientists: Climate Records ‘Correlate Well’ With Solar Modulation…A Grand Solar Minimum Expected By 2030

International and NASA solar scientists find their Total Solar Irradiance reconstruction extending to 1700 can “correlate well” with Earth’s global temperature records, including a positive net TSI trend during 1986-2008. A new Grand Solar Minimum is expected to commence during the 2030s.

Kennith Richard has the details at the NoTricksZone

Grand Solar Minimums Marked by Violent Volcanic Activity

Re-blogged from Ice Age Now

J.H. Walker

Under normal orbital rules I would disagree with a descent in a glaciation period this century and possibly several hundred years without a major geological-driver. But this time it could come from man’s own hubris that he is the master of the universe and his attempts at geoengineering cooling in the midst of a known and predicted Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) cooling period.

The problem with GSM isn’t the reduced energy radiating the earth, but the variation in atmospheric circulation and cooling which is variable, unpredictable, and drives warmist liars silly because it’s so inconvenient.

The real problem with GSMs is the angular momentum changes of the largest mass object in the solar system – the Sun -as it attempts to stay within the gravitation laws of the Solar System Gravity well and orbit the moving Solar System BarryCentre. Some orbits changes are so abrupt they perform zero crossings of the BarryCentre itself.

Not only does this have profound implications for the moderation of the Sun’s energy output, it also has profound implications for the smaller rocky inner planets such as Venus and Earth by simulating volcanic – and in Earth’s case – tectonic activity as well.

The Holocene is segmented by abrupt sequences of cooling following geological events such as the Younger Dryas, the 8.5K event, and massive volcanic eruption either during, or lagging a GSM periods.

This modern GSM has increased levels of volcanism either on the rift zones (underwater volcanoes) or from the various volcanic hot spots, and those time-line incidences are increasing with a shortening time span between them.

The Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) experienced 3 massive T6/T7 eruptions. Each named Grand Solar Minimum since has been marked with similar violent eruptive periods. Dalton, the last GSM, was marked by Tambora.

I fear this Modern GSM will be no different.

This graphic was not part of the original post, however it shows major volcano eruptions during and after the LIA.

Volcanic activity